Is Solana Heading for a LUNA-Like Crash? Analysts Warn of Potential Collapse Amid Bullish Signals
- Solana's Rollercoaster: Bullish Breakout or Impending Doom?
- The LUNA Parallel That's Shaking the Market
- Four Critical Warning Signs
- The Bull Case: Why Some See $260+ Ahead
- Network Upgrade: 60,000 TPS on the Horizon
- The Reliability Question
- FAQ: Your Solana Dilemma Solved
Solana's Rollercoaster: Bullish Breakout or Impending Doom?
Solana's SOL token has been riding the altcoin wave with a 20% weekly surge, trading at $201.01 as of July 24, 2025. The rally comes amid renewed institutional interest and a major network upgrade boosting block size by 20%. Yet beneath the surface, troubling signs emerge when analyzing SOL against major crypto assets.
Source: TradingView
The LUNA Parallel That's Shaking the Market
Technical analyst Gert van Lagen dropped a bombshell comparison on Twitter, highlighting SOL's weakening structure against BTC, ETH, ADA, and XRP: "Wouldn't be shocked if $SOL ends up being this cycle's $LUNA - it's already looking so lunar." His charts reveal bearish divergences across all high-timeframe (HTF) pairs, with SOL breaking key support levels that preceded LUNA's collapse.
1/4 Wouldn't be shocked if $SOL ends up being this cycle's $LUNA — it's already looking so lunar. Breaking down vs $BTC, $ETH, $ADA, $XRP on the high timeframes. Bearish divergence across the board...
— Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen) July 22, 2025
Four Critical Warning Signs
1.: SOL remains trapped below its high-period moving average (MA) after its 2023 rally stalled
2.: The SOL/ETH MA curve suggests prolonged bearish momentum
3.: SOL/ADA shows consistent rejection at trendlines with descending MA
4.: No meaningful recovery signs despite broader altcoin season
Source: TradingView
The Bull Case: Why Some See $260+ Ahead
Web3 investor Zyn counters the doom narrative, pointing to SOL's confirmed breakout above mid-range resistance: "The momentum favors bulls, and SOL appears ready for its next leg up." His analysis suggests a potential rally to $260 if SOL maintains its position above $200 support.
Source: TradingView
Network Upgrade: 60,000 TPS on the Horizon
Solana's Epoch 821 upgrade brings a 20% block size increase, potentially pushing transaction capacity beyond 60,000 TPS. Helius Labs CEO Mert tweeted: "in 8 hours, solana blocks become 20% bigger." This technical leap could strengthen SOL's competitive edge against Ethereum's ongoing scaling solutions.
Source: SolScan
The Reliability Question
Despite upgrades, Solana's history of network outages during peak demand lingers. One community member voiced concerns: "Not sure what to make of this" - reflecting ongoing skepticism about the network's stability under pressure.
FAQ: Your Solana Dilemma Solved
Why are analysts comparing Solana to LUNA?
Technical patterns show SOL weakening against major cryptos (BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP) in ways similar to LUNA's pre-collapse behavior, including bearish divergences and breakdowns on high-timeframe charts.
What's the bullish argument for Solana?
Proponents point to its confirmed breakout above $200, institutional interest, and network upgrades potentially enabling 60,000+ TPS - giving it technical advantages over competitors.
How reliable is Solana's network?
While Epoch 821 improves throughput, Solana has faced criticism for past outages during high traffic. The current upgrade aims to address these stability concerns.
Where can I trade SOL safely?
Major exchanges like BTCC offer SOL trading with robust security measures. Always DYOR before trading volatile assets.
