IREN Stock Stagnates Post-Q1 Earnings as Microsoft’s $9.7B Mega-Deal Sparks Analyst Wars

IREN shares flatline—despite a monster $9.7B Microsoft partnership lighting up the tape. Wall Street can't decide if it's a diamond or a dud.

Bull Case: Cloud infrastructure play meets AI hype cycle. Bear Case: Another 'strategic' deal that pads exec resumes more than shareholder wallets.

Meanwhile, traders yawn—proving once again that 'game-changing' corporate announcements often change nothing but the PowerPoint slides.

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IREN, previously focused primarily on Bitcoin mining, saw its shares fall almost 7% on Friday, after reporting mixed results for the first quarter of its Fiscal Year 2026. However, not all analysts remain confident about its $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft (MSFT).

IREN’s Deal with Microsoft — Risk or Reward?

Previously, Roth MKM Darren Aftahi praised the deal as having “more legs to it,” even as Cantor Fitzgerald analyst BRETT Knoblauch echoed a similar sentiment. Similarly, Canaccord Genuity analyst Joseph Vafi, in his latest assessment, reiterated his Buy rating and raised his price target by over 66% to $70 per share.

The five-star analyst noted that the deal strengthens IREN’s position in the AI ecosystem, pointing out that the advanced graphics processing unit (GPU) could provide long-term value in AI workloads. Vafi argued that this means IREN could generate more revenue from the deal than his team’s current financial models suggest.

However, H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese sees things through a different prism. Colonnese, who reiterated his Sell rating on IREN despite raising his price target by 24% to $56 per share, sees “quite high” execution and financial risks for IREN.

To fulfill the contract to supply Microsoft with access to chip designer Nvidia’s (NVDA) GB300 GPUs, IREN entered a $5.8 billion deal with Dell Technologies (DELL) to purchase GPUs and other key equipment for the buildout.

Colonnese sees this as posing “significant risks” to the company’s aim to hit its revenue forecast for its Fiscal Year 2026 despite the data center operator’s recent fundraising efforts. The analyst previously argued that IREN will need to invest about $8.8 billion over the next year to fulfil the contract.

Is IREN a Good Stock to Buy Now?

Across Wall Street, analysts generally remain cautious on IREN stock. IREN’s shares currently have a Moderate Buy consensus rating, as seen on TipRanks. This is based on 8 Buys, two Holds, and two Sells ratings issued by 12 analysts over the past three months.

However, at $78.40, the average IREN price target indicates nearly 25% upside potential from the current trading level.