U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher Ahead of Key Inflation Data - Market Watch 9/26/25
Futures creep upward as traders brace for inflation numbers that'll either justify current valuations or send markets scrambling.
The Inflation Countdown
Traders position themselves cautiously before the economic data drop. Market momentum hangs in the balance—one number away from breaking the current stalemate.
Pre-Market Positioning
Institutional money edges toward risk assets despite underlying uncertainty. The subtle upward drift suggests guarded optimism rather than outright conviction.
The Data Dilemma
Everyone's watching the same indicators but reading different tea leaves. Today's numbers will force the market to pick a direction after weeks of sideways action.
Because nothing says 'efficient markets' like hanging every decision on a single government report while pretending to analyze fundamentals.
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During Thursday’s regular trading session, all three major indexes closed lower for a third straight day, pressured by concerns over stretched equity valuations. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones ended the session down 0.50%, 0.50%, and 0.38%, respectively. Leading the decline were major AI firms, including Oracle (ORCL), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA). The indices remain on track to finish the week in negative territory, driven by volatility and profit-taking in the tech sector.
After the markets closed, membership-only retailer Costco (COST) shares slipped despite beating Wall Street expectations on sales and earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter.
All eyes now turn to August’s PCE figures, scheduled for release today, which could shape the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions. Economists expect PCE to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year. However, investor Optimism has been tempered by stronger-than-expected labor data. Weekly jobless claims fell sharply, and second-quarter GDP was revised higher to 3.8%.
There are no major earnings releases scheduled for today.
Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was up, floating NEAR 4.17%. WTI crude oil futures were trending higher, hovering near $65.08 per barrel as of the last check. Additionally, the Gold Spot U.S. dollar price increased to nearly $3,779 per ounce on Friday.
Elsewhere, European stocks opened higher on September 26, as investors assessed the recent trade rules announced by the WHITE House, including President Trump’s new taxes on imported medicines and heavy trucks, along with strong economic data shaping market momentum.
Asia-Pacific Markets Traded Lower Today
Asia-Pacific markets traded lower on Friday following U.S. President Trump’s 100% tariffs on drug imports, many of which originate in Asia.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 1.35%. In China, the Shanghai Composite fell by 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component lost 1.38%. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 0.87%, while the Topix ROSE marginally by 0.05%.
