Bittensor (TAO) at a Crossroads: Imminent Crash Below $310 or Explosive Rally Past $326?

Bittensor (TAO) teeters on a knife's edge—will bears drag it below $310 or bulls catapult it past $326?

Decoding TAO's make-or-break moment

The AI-focused crypto asset flashes volatility as traders brace for a decisive move. No middle ground here—it's either a breakdown or a breakout.

Market whispers suggest institutional players are circling like vultures (because nothing says 'decentralized future' like hedge funds placing billion-dollar bets). Technicals show a coiled spring: RSI hovering at neutral, Bollinger Bands tightening like a noose.

One thing's certain—when TAO moves, it'll move fast. Whether that's up or down? Well, that's why they pay analysts the big bucks (to guess wrong 50% of the time).

• Bittensor (TAO) is trading around $318, struggling below key moving averages including the 9-SMA at $326.67.
• RSI at 39.15 and MACD crossover both point to continued bearish momentum.
• Open interest has dropped sharply, indicating reduced market participation and growing caution.
• Liquidation zones between $310 and $320 make this range critical for near-term support.

Bittensor (TAO) is currently trading around $318, showing a slight decline of about 0.5%. Despite some attempts to recover, the token continues to face selling pressure. This ongoing struggle is mainly because TAO remains below several important moving averages that act as strong resistance barriers. As a result, upward momentum is limited.

Tao Price Faces Strong Bearish Pressure

To begin with, the price is sitting just below the 9-period simple moving average (SMA) at $326.67, which serves as immediate resistance. Beyond that, longer-term moving averages, the 20 SMA at $335.45, 50 SMA at $334.18, 100 SMA at $358.21, and 200 SMA at $382.67, are all positioned well above the current price.

This pattern indicates that the market is still in a bearish phase, as prices trading below these averages tend to discourage buyers.

Furthermore, technical indicators reinforce this bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), for example, is at 39.15. Since values below 50 typically suggest stronger selling pressure, it confirms that sellers have the upper hand. However, the RSI has not dropped below 30, which means the token is not yet oversold and there is still some room for further declines.

Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) adds weight to the bearish case. With the MACD line at -2.05 crossing below the signal line at -0.98, the indicator confirms that downward momentum is prevailing, and sellers continue to dominate the market.

Bittensor Market Signals Growing Uncertainty

In addition to these signals, trading volume remains moderate without any significant spikes. This steady but subdued activity points to cautious behavior among traders. At the same time, open interest in TAO’s futures and options markets has plunged drastically, from nearly 298 million contracts to only 2,366 recently.

This sharp decline suggests that many traders have reduced or closed their positions, reflecting uncertainty and a more conservative approach.

Interestingly, there is a divergence between the current market price around $318 and the open interest weighted price, which remains much higher at approximately $401.

This gap indicates conflicting market views, while the spot price signals bearish sentiment, those with open contracts still hold a more optimistic valuation for TAO. Such divergence often hints at potential volatility ahead, as the market tries to reconcile these differing perspectives.

Tao Hovers Near Key Liquidation Zone

Another critical factor to consider is the liquidation zones revealed by leverage heatmaps. Many Leveraged positions are clustered between $310 and $320, very close to the current price. This range acts as a key support level.

If prices fall below this zone, forced liquidations could accelerate the selling pressure, pushing the price lower. On the other hand, holding above this support could provide a base for a potential rebound, giving bulls a chance to regain control.

TAO Eyes Key $326 Resistance

TAO faces continued selling pressure, with key resistance from multiple moving averages and weak momentum confirmed by technical indicators. Meanwhile, moderate trading volume and sharply declining open interest reflect cautious sentiment in the market.

Moving forward, traders should keep an eye on the 9-SMA at $326.67 as a resistance level, breaking above it might signal the start of a bullish shift. Conversely, the support range between $310 and $320 is crucial to watch since a break below this could trigger more liquidations and sharper losses.