Bitcoin Poised for Q3 ATH Surge – But Traders Should Keep One Hand on the Exit

Brace for liftoff – crypto's flagship asset is gassing up for a potential all-time high run this quarter. Market cycles suggest Bitcoin's overdue for a breakout, but seasoned hodlers know the drill: every parabola eventually meets gravity.

The Bull Case: Liquidity Tsunami Ahead

With institutional FOMO building and the Fed's money printer whispering sweet nothings to risk assets, BTC's technicals are screaming 'overbought' in the most delicious way possible. The $100K psychological barrier isn't just plausible – it's becoming a magnet.

The Bear Trap: Mid-Term Jitters Remain

Don't let hopium override your stop-loss instincts. Remember 2021's 'supercycle' promises? Exactly. While spot ETF flows suggest sustained demand, crypto's favorite four-letter word (FUD) always lurks around macroeconomic corners.

Smart money's playing both sides – because nothing makes hedge funds happier than retail traders' confirmation bias. As always in crypto: the trend's your friend until the bend at the end.

Source: Glassnode

This meant a premium for puts (bearish bets) over calls (bullish bets) at the end of  Q3 and December 2025. 

Summer seasonal at play?

Unsurprisingly, the above sentiment and market positioning, especially for Q3, mirrored the summer seasonals. 

According to CoinGlass’ historical performance, summer has always been the worst period for BTC. On average, BTC posted 6% returns in Q3, with the best period being Q4 (85%), followed by Q1 (54%).  

Source: CoinGlass

However, not all months within Q3 performed poorly in the past. In particular, July has been an outlier, with 7.5% returns on average, suggesting historical weakening in August and September. 

If history repeats, July could offer modest gains followed by selling pressure afterwards. Most analysts LINK this trend to low trading activity due to summer holidays. 

However, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. 

In fact, Polymarket bettors were betting against the above seasonality. The prediction site highly expects a new all-time high (ATH) before October, with over an 85% chance for such an outcome. 

In other words, the market expects a push above $112K in Q3. Analyst Stockmoney Lizards echoed this consensus and eyed a potential jump to $115K by August. 

Source: Stockmoney Lizards/X