BREAKING: Altcoin ETF Approval Now 95% Likely—Analysts Say It’s ’Almost a Done Deal’

Wall Street's crypto craving just got a fresh hit of hopium. Top analysts now peg altcoin ETF approvals at near-certainty odds—just as the SEC runs out of excuses to keep kicking the can.

### The institutional floodgates are creaking open

Forget 'if'—traders are now placing bets on 'when.' With 19 out of 20 analysts calling approval inevitable, the market's pricing in a green light before Q4. Cue the institutional money printers warming up.

### Regulators finally capitulating to demand

After years of 'concerned' hand-wringing, even Gary Gensler's team appears tired of playing villain. The 95% consensus suggests regulators now see more risk in missing the boat than in boarding it—especially with election season lobbying checks clearing.

### The cynical take? Follow the fees

Let's not pretend this is about 'democratizing finance.' BlackRock didn't spend $12M on lobbying last quarter for charity—they smell fresh AUM to skim. But hey, at least your shitcoin bags might finally catch a bid.

Regulatory Momentum Builds for Crypto ETFs

The updated 95% probability marks a notable shift from earlier estimates that placed crypto ETF approvals in the 70–80% range. This change in outlook stems largely from increased engagement between ETF issuers and the SEC, according to Seyffart and Balchunas.

The SEC has formally acknowledged multiple 19b-4 filings for these ETF applications—a key step in the approval process. In addition, many of the digital assets involved, including Solana, Litecoin, and XRP, already have Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated futures markets, which reinforces their credibility in the eyes of regulators.

The analysts said these signs collectively point to a regulator that is becoming more comfortable with altcoin-based ETFs. “The SEC’s engagement here is a very positive sign,” Seyffart noted.

Multiple Altcoins See High Approval Odds

The optimism doesn’t stop with Solana, Litecoin, and XRP. According to the analysts’ updated estimates, a range of other altcoins also have strong odds of securing spot ETF approval in 2025:1) polkadot 2) hedera 3) cardano 4) Avalanche 4) dogecoin

These figures suggest that the SEC may be preparing for a broader rollout of crypto investment products, reflecting a shift in how regulators view digital assets. With several deadlines approaching in the second half of 2025, investors and institutions alike are keeping a close eye on the timeline.

ETF Baskets Also Likely to Gain Approval

It’s not just single-asset ETFs that are gaining traction. Analysts also gave a 95% approval chance to crypto basket ETFs proposed by firms like Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex, and Franklin Templeton. These multi-asset products aim to provide diversified exposure to several cryptocurrencies in one tradable fund.

With SEC deadlines looming for many of these filings, analysts believe it’s just a matter of timing. Some approvals could happen as early as this summer, while others may be delayed until the final decision periods in October or November.

A Turning Point for Crypto Regulation

The increased odds come at a pivotal moment for the crypto market, which has seen a sharp rise in institutional interest. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved earlier this year, opened the door for mainstream investment in digital assets. Now, the focus is shifting to altcoins.

The SEC’s evolving stance could signal a new chapter for the industry. After years of legal disputes and regulatory uncertainty—especially in cases involving XRP and other tokens—the tone has begun to change. Many of the assets now under consideration are increasingly seen as commodities, rather than securities, providing a clearer path to compliance.

The approval of ETFs for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP could significantly deepen liquidity and market access, especially for institutions that prefer regulated products.

Industry Reaction and What Comes Next

Crypto market participants and ETF issuers have welcomed the analysts’ update as a signal that real progress is being made behind the scenes. The possibility of ETF approvals has already influenced market sentiment and could fuel fresh inflows into the respective tokens.

That said, timing remains uncertain. In a follow-up post, Seyffart cautioned, “The timing of these approvals/launches is more uncertain. Could be something we’re talking about in the next month or two. Or it could be something that waits until October or later.”

The SEC’s approach may remain cautious, but the consensus is building: these ETFs are likely coming. For now, the question isn’t if—they’ll be approved, but when.

Key Dates to Watch

While no firm approval dates have been given, many ETF applications for altcoins face final SEC decision deadlines in October and November 2025. These dates will be crucial for investors tracking the potential rollout of new crypto investment vehicles.

With Solana, Litecoin, and XRP leading the pack, and multi-asset products close behind, the next few months could reshape the landscape of regulated crypto access in the U.S.