Bitcoin Price Forecast: 70% Chance Of New Highs Within Two Weeks, Experts Say

Bitcoin's poised for a potential breakout as analysts signal overwhelming bullish momentum.

The $4 trillion question: Will traditional finance finally catch up or keep watching from the sidelines?

Seventy percent odds favor fresh all-time highs within the next fourteen days—mathematical models are flashing green across trading desks.

Traders are positioning aggressively, derivatives markets heating up, and institutional flows haven't looked this strong since the last halving.

Meanwhile, Wall Street's still trying to figure out how to short innovation without looking foolish—good luck with that.

Bullish Indicators Emerge

Market expert Axel Adler has highlighted key indicators supporting this outlook. He noted on social media platform X that BTC futures are trading at a premium compared to spot prices, with a consistently positive basis. Additionally, the seven-day basis is above the thirty-day average, suggesting a bullish market regime. 

Adler’s analysis suggests a base case probability of around 70% for a continued stepwise uptrend or sideways movement over the next two weeks for the Bitcoin price. 

He emphasized that if a cluster of bullish signals emerges—such as rising prices, an increasing basis, and growing open interest—this would likely attract fresh long positions and enhance the likelihood of the bitcoin price achieving a new ATH.

Importantly, the Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-scores for both the 155-day and 365-day periods are hovering NEAR zero, indicating that the market is balanced and not in an overheated or oversold state. 

With the bitcoin price positioned just above its Short-Term Realized Price, Adler stresses that the stage is set for potential consolidation over the next week or two, followed by a possible surge toward new highs. Adler referred to this anticipated movement as a new “uptober” for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market.

Bitcoin Price Boost Predicted Amidst Strong US Stock Market Performance

Adding to the bullish sentiment surrounding the Bitcoin price is the recent performance of US stocks, which have been on a significant uptrend for the past two weeks. 

Analysts at The Bull Theory have noted a correlation between stock market rallies and the Bitcoin price action, with the analysts suggesting that Bitcoin tends to rise when US equities hit new highs. 

Historical data supports this notion: as seen in the chart below, after an all-time high in the S&P 500, the Bitcoin price has averaged an increase of 12% over 30 days and an impressive 36% over 90 days. If this were to occur again, the Bitcoin price WOULD reach $131,000 and even $178,000 respectively. 

Similarly, following a Nasdaq all-time high, Bitcoin’s average gains are 16% in 30 days and 46% in 90 days. This scenario would position the market’s leading cryptocurrency at $136,000 and $199,000 if similar price action unfolds from current trading levels of $117,770. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com