Only 13% of Short-Term Bitcoin Holders in Profit—Is This the Calm Before a Massive Rally?

Bitcoin's latest price action has left short-term holders clutching their wallets—just 13% are currently in the green. Could this be the market's way of shaking out weak hands before the next leg up?

When profits dry up, panic sets in. But seasoned crypto traders know: historically, these conditions precede explosive moves. The question isn't if, but when.

Meanwhile, Wall Street 'experts' will undoubtedly spin this as proof of crypto's instability—conveniently ignoring their own portfolios stuffed with overleveraged ETFs and dying meme stocks.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Behavior Points to Caution

Darkfost emphasized that even though Bitcoin’s price remains close to record highs, the current low profit margins held by short-term investors, whose realized purchase price averages around $104,000, may explain the lack of widespread selling.

These holders may be waiting for stronger gains before taking profits. However, the analyst warned that if market conditions deteriorate further and these holders start to incur losses, their eventual capitulation could lead to a rapid sell-off.

Historically, such capitulations have coincided with price corrections, but also presented entry opportunities for longer-term investors seeking favorable market conditions.

In a related post, fellow CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest explored activity among large Bitcoin holders. He noted that whale inflows to Binance have risen sharply, with the 30-day cumulative inflow metric jumping by $1.2 billion in a single day on July 25.

This sudden surge coincided with downward price pressure and a rejection at the $120,000 level, sending Bitcoin back toward the $115,000–$116,000 range.

BorisVest highlighted that although retail investors have also been transferring coins to exchanges, their activity remains relatively modest in comparison, suggesting that large holders are playing a more dominant role in current market moves.

Whale Inflows Add Pressure to Key Support Zone

The imbalance between retail and whale inflows is creating a fragile support structure, according to BorisVest. The analyst pointed out that if the current support range around $115,000 fails to hold, Bitcoin could decline toward the $110,000 level.

Conversely, a strong rebound from this area might set the stage for another push toward the $121,000 mark or even new record highs. The market’s direction in the NEAR term is expected to hinge on how effectively buying demand can absorb the current wave of whale-driven selling.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView