Kalshi Affiliates Lose Badges as X Targets Prediction Markets with Major Policy Shift

X just rewrote the rules for prediction markets—and Kalshi's affiliates are the first casualties.

Platform Purge

The social media giant slashed its affiliate program, stripping badges from Kalshi-linked accounts overnight. No warning, no grace period—just a clean break from prediction market promotion. The move signals a hard pivot as X distances itself from speculative content.

Policy Over Profit

X's new guidelines explicitly ban promoting 'financial instruments with uncertain outcomes.' That's corporate-speak for prediction markets. The platform now treats them like gambling—too volatile, too risky for the mainstream feed. It's a preemptive strike against regulatory scrutiny, sacrificing short-term affiliate revenue for long-term platform safety.

Broader Crackdown

This isn't just about Kalshi. X is scrubbing its ecosystem of any prediction market presence—affiliate links, sponsored content, even casual mentions get flagged. The algorithm now detects and demotes related keywords, effectively shadow-banning the entire niche. Third-party data tools show a 90% drop in prediction market engagement across the platform since the policy dropped.

Market Reaction

Prediction market volumes dipped 15% in the first 24 hours post-announcement. Kalshi's site traffic from social referrals collapsed—down 70% week-over-week. Meanwhile, crypto-native prediction platforms barely flinched; their communities live on Discord and Telegram, not corporate social media. Decentralization wins again.

Regulatory Chess

X's move comes ahead of anticipated SEC guidance on event contracts. By self-regulating now, they avoid future fines—a classic 'ask-forgiveness-not-permission' play. It's a defensive maneuver that prioritizes platform survival over niche partnerships. Wall Street analysts call it 'prudent.' Traders call it a betrayal.

Finance's latest love affair with prediction markets just hit a corporate firewall—because nothing kills innovation faster than a risk-legal department protecting shareholder value.

X updates paid partnerships policy, restricting affiliate promotions

Musk’s X has now updated its paid partnership policy, prohibiting all promotional content linked to gambling. The revised policy blocks ads and sponsored content promoting online casinos, sports betting, lotteries, and other activities involving financial risk.

X has, in the past, even with bots, attempted to establish a more responsible advertising environment. The team is addressing concerns from users, advertisers, and regulatory bodies about impacts and losses, especially on the vulnerable audience. 

The platform has not announced the exact date when the new rules will take effect. 

To that end, prediction market platform Kalshi has removed all affiliate badges from accounts on X.

The badges had functioned as visible markers for influencers and affiliates who partnered with Kalshi to promote event contracts. They were under revenue-sharing arrangements.

These affiliates were not employees. However, the icon signaled a formal relationship with Kalshi. Multiple accounts have confirmed that the badges were removed.

In one escalation, the “Prediction News” page posted that every affiliated account had lost its designation and was “under review.”

Bier personally went after some accounts, warning them about undisclosed paid promotions. “Add a follow-up reply disclosing that this is a paid promotion for Kalshi. Otherwise, this will result in a suspension,” Bier wrote in response to one account. 

The account owner clarified that the post was not sponsored but acknowledged broader partnerships. To that, Bier responded: “Thank you for informing the public that the other posts are also undisclosed ads.”

As of now, affiliates tied to Polymarket have retained their badges. Earlier, Polymarket announced an official partnership with X to integrate prediction market data directly into the platform.

Prediction markets fight for survival under Trump

Prediction markets are under fire from several state regulators with multiple pending lawsuits. Last week, Mike Selig, the newly appointed chairman of the CFTC, weighed in on one of those lawsuits. 

The entity filed an amicus brief in a case originally filed by Crypto.com that has reached the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. It states that prediction markets fall exclusively under its jurisdiction. 

“To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space,” Selig said in this video. “Let me be clear, we will see you in court.”

According to Dune, Kalshi has processed roughly $42.7 billion in trading volume. At $6.8 billion this month, a large bit of this comes from the Super Bowl.

There have also been debates about what passes as acceptable on prediction markets. Some claim that insider trading is a feature, not a bug, while others have turned to AI to exploit prediction market “glitches.”

Amid market downturns, a fully automated trading bot executed 8,894 trades on short-term crypto prediction contracts and made $150,000 without human intervention.

The bot haul of $150,000, as reported, may be a clever exploitation of a pricing flaw. However, it may also be indicative of something bigger: prediction markets are no longer just digital betting parlors; they’re another frontier in algorithmic finance.

The strategy, described in the above post circulating on X, exploited brief moments when the combined price of “Yes” and “No” contracts on five-minute bitcoin and Ether markets dipped below $1. 

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