Canaccord Dismisses Short-Term Demand Cracks, Lifts Tesla Price Target to $551

Analysts are brushing off the noise and doubling down on Tesla's long-term trajectory.

Looking Past the Quarter

Canaccord Genuity just sent a clear signal to the market: ignore the short-term volatility. The firm raised its 12-month price target on Tesla to $551, a move that cuts through recent chatter about demand concerns. They're betting the company's core growth story remains intact—and they're putting a number on it.

The Price Target Speaks Volumes

That new figure isn't just a minor adjustment. It represents a calculated vote of confidence in Tesla's ability to execute its roadmap, from scaling production to navigating supply chains. The report suggests temporary dips are just that—temporary—and the underlying fundamentals justify a higher valuation.

A Bullish Bet Against the Grain

This call stands in contrast to more cautious voices fretting over monthly delivery numbers. Canaccord's stance implies the market is missing the forest for the trees, focusing on quarterly cracks instead of the multi-year disruption Tesla is engineering. It's a classic finance move: upgrade when sentiment is shaky to look like a genius later. Or, you know, be wrong with conviction.

The upgrade throws fuel on the debate: is Tesla a car company facing cyclical pressures, or a tech-driven ecosystem still in its early innings? For now, at least one major shop is betting heavily on the latter.

Price target raised despite weak Q4 delivery forecast

George said the end of U.S. EV subsidies has hit short-term demand harder than expected. That’s why he revised the Q4 delivery estimate lower, even while raising the price target. Still, he sees it as a short dip, not a trend.

He added that the subsidy cut is “forcing a healthier, more durable market to emerge,” one that’s shaped by product strength, not government help.

According to George, the EV shakeout is making it clearer which carmakers actually care about electric vehicles. The rest? They just slapped together compliance projects to look busy. But Tesla, he said, has dedicated platforms, real software development, capital planning, and customer loyalty.

“Only brands with strong products, cost discipline, and loyalty are positioned to keep/gain share,” George wrote.

He pointed at Rivian as the only possible long-term rival, but didn’t sound too worried. The tone was clear: most carmakers are falling behind, and Tesla is still ahead, even if growth slows short-term.

EV growth in emerging markets adds to long-term optimism

Beyond the U.S. market, George highlighted growing EV adoption in countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. He called these markets “nascent opportunities” that could deliver long-term upside for Tesla, even though they’re small now.

He also touched on Tesla’s robotaxi rollout, which is moving slower than originally expected. Still, he backed it.

And he flagged one more thing Wall Street should be watching: the Optimus humanoid robot program. He said that by 2026, it could bring new attention to Tesla’s non-automotive business and help it tap new profit streams.

“Potentially more expansive news FLOW around the Optimus humanoid robot program in 2026 could further enhance Tesla’s perceived optionality in nonautomotive profit pools,” he wrote.

Taking all this together, George said these upsides “outweigh the near-term earnings reset in the valuation framework,” and that’s why he bumped the target price up to $551, even as Q4 deliveries go lower.

Shares of Tesla have climbed 21% this year, and Canaccord is betting that the rally still has more room to run.

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