Fed Cut Already Priced In? Powell’s Tone and 2026 Shift Signal Bullish Crypto Run, Says Nansen

Markets yawn at the expected Fed move—it's the subtler signals that have crypto buzzing.

The Powell Whisper

Forget the headline rate decision. The real action was in the nuance—the shift in tone, the updated 'dot plot' projections for 2026. That's where analysts at Nansen see the green light flashing for digital assets. When the central bank telegraphs a longer-term pivot, it doesn't just cut rates; it cuts the cord on traditional finance's dominance.

2026: The New North Star

Talk about forward guidance. The Fed's updated outlook for 2026 is doing more heavy lifting than a Wall Street intern on coffee duty. It provides a multi-year runway of liquidity expectations, a framework where decentralized, non-sovereign assets start to look less like a gamble and more like a strategic hedge. It's the kind of clarity that bypasses short-term noise and fuels long-term conviction.

Priced In, But Not Played Out

Sure, the first cut was baked into the cake. But the confirmation—and the specific path laid out beyond it—unlocks a new phase. It validates the macro thesis that has driven institutional interest and drains anxiety from the system. The money waiting on the sidelines now has a clearer map.

The bottom line? The Fed is finally catching up to a market that stopped caring about its old playbook years ago. While traditional finance debates basis points, crypto's building the next basis of value.

Fed to Stick to ‘Wait-and-See’ Approach

Barthere expects the Fed to deliver the widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut, noting that policymakers are likely to stress a data-dependent approach given the two-month lag in labor-market figures.

“The Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance,” she said, adding that she expects the terminal rate projection to remain NEAR 3.0%, reflecting a divided committee.

Beyond today’s decision, Barthere pointed to the delayed announcement of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, now expected in early 2026, as a potentially bullish development for crypto markets.

A leadership shift toward a more growth-friendly stance could strengthen expectations for further easing next year.

On the technical front, Barthere said Bitcoin faces a critical test at the $91,000 level, where the 20-day EMA converges with a downtrend dating back to October.

BREAKING: There is now a 94% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates on Wednesday, per Polymarket.

The 3rd rate cut of 2025 is coming. pic.twitter.com/d7a7coKSDY

She expects BTC to trade around this zone after the FOMC meeting, rather than making a decisive breakout.

The Fed meeting arrives at the end of a turbulent year for the US economy, marked by weakening labor conditions, rising layoffs, and renewed inflation pressure tied to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

The central bank is also operating with limited fresh data due to the U.S. government shutdown, which delayed November hiring and inflation releases.

Despite mixed signals, economists overwhelmingly expect another quarter-point cut. The CME FedWatch tool places the odds of a 25-bps move at 89.4%, which WOULD mark the third consecutive reduction and push the federal funds rate into the 3.75%–4% range.

Fed Liquidity Boost Could Send Bitcoin “Sharply Higher,” Analysts Say

As reported, Bitcoin’s climb above $92,000 has stirred fresh Optimism among market watchers who now believe this week’s Federal Reserve meeting could set off a far bigger rally.

Analysts at the London Crypto Club say a liquidity boost from the Fed on Wednesday may act as a powerful catalyst, potentially driving the world’s largest cryptocurrency “sharply higher.”

In their latest note, David Brickell and Chris Mills argue that the central bank is poised to deliver a “dovish surprise,” forecasting that policymakers will inject liquidity through a creative bond-buying mechanism rather than explicit quantitative easing.

“We’re moving into a continued rate-cutting cycle accompanied by balance sheet expansion as the Fed effectively turns on the money printers to monetise the deficit,” they wrote.

Meanwhile, a key on-chain indicator known as “liveliness” is climbing again, even as Bitcoin’s price action remains subdued.

Analysts say the divergence suggests renewed underlying demand, with dormant coins moving at levels not seen in years, a sign that long-term holders may be re-entering the market.

Last week, Bitfinex said the market is showing “seller exhaustion” following a period of heavy deleveraging and panic-driven exits by short-term holders.