Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Masterstroke: Could MicroStrategy Crack the S&P 500 This Week?

Wall Street's sleeping giant might finally wake up—with a crypto twist.

MicroStrategy's relentless Bitcoin accumulation could land it in the hallowed S&P 500 club as early as Friday. The enterprise software firm turned BTC whale now meets all inclusion criteria except one: positive GAAP earnings. But with its stock up 1,200% since adopting its Bitcoin strategy, even traditionalists are starting to sweat.

The ultimate irony? A company that bet everything on decentralized currency might become the new darling of institutional portfolios. Just don't tell the gold bugs.

In Brief

• Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has a 91% chance to join the prestigious S&P 500 index within the next 5 days.
• Eligibility entirely depends on bitcoin staying above $95,240 by June 30.
• The company currently holds 592,345 bitcoins, the largest portfolio among publicly traded companies.
• If successful, Strategy would become the second crypto company to join the S&P 500 after Coinbase last May.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy is Just One Step Away from Joining the S&P 500

Financial analyst Jeff Walton has just delivered a prediction that electrifies the markets: Strategy shows a 91% probability of joining the S&P 500 in the coming days. This estimate is based on a rigorous statistical analysis of bitcoin’s historical behavior since September 2014.

Walton examined more than 3,900 six-day consecutive periods to establish his calculations. Over this decade of observations, bitcoin dropped more than 10% in only 8.7% of such periods.

“The remaining 91% of these periods did not experience a 10% drop“, specifies the analyst in his latest video.

The rule is now clear for Strategy: bitcoin must absolutely stay above $95,240 until June 30.

Below this critical floor, the company WOULD not be able to report “second quarter profits exceeding those of the previous three quarters combined“. Yet, this condition is one of the fundamental eligibility criteria for the S&P 500.

This new situation directly stems from Strategy’s adoption of accounting rule ASU 2023-08 since January. This regulation requires bitcoin holdings to be revalued at their fair market value, with a direct impact on financial results for each period.

A Bet on History Repeating Itself

The odds weigh clearly in Michael Saylor’s favor as time ticks on. The closer June end approaches, the more Strategy’s chances mathematically improve. Over five days, the probability of avoiding a 10% drop rises to 92.4%. It even reaches 97.6% over a single day.

This favorable temporal dynamic contrasts with the recent volatility of crypto markets. The geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel recently pushed bitcoin below the symbolic $100,000 mark for the first time since May.

At the time of Walton’s analysis, the crypto was trading around $106,044, providing a comfortable safety margin above the critical threshold.

The stakes go far beyond Strategy alone. If the operation succeeds, the company would join Coinbase as the second crypto firm to enter the prestigious American index.

Joining the S&P 500 would mark a major turning point for Saylor’s bitcoin strategy. With 592,345 bitcoins in its portfolio, Strategy already holds the global record among listed companies.

The coming days will be decisive for Michael Saylor. If bitcoin remains strong, Strategy could carve its name in American financial history—a crowning achievement for a company that has bet its entire future on the widespread adoption of bitcoin.

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