Fed’s July 30 Rate Cut Looms in FOMC Minutes—Crypto Markets Unshaken

Markets yawn as the Fed telegraphs another dovish pivot. Crypto? Barely blinked.

The Setup: FOMC minutes confirm what everyone already knew—Powell & Co. are sharpening their rate-cut scissors for July 30. Traders now placing bets on whether the cut will be 25bps or another 'insurance' 50bps special.

Crypto's Poker Face: Bitcoin volatility flatlined at 18% despite the news—because when you've survived 80% drawdowns, Fed parlour games barely register. Altcoins followed suit, with ETH derivatives open interest actually dipping 2% post-announcement.

The Real Story: Institutional flows into crypto ETFs kept chugging at $150M daily—proving once again that Wall Street's 'risk-off' playbook now includes digital assets. (Goldbugs seething.)

Closing thought: If 'transitory' inflation taught us anything, it's that the Fed moves at the speed of a dial-up modem while crypto markets operate on 5G. Place your bets accordingly.

Fed Aligned On At Least One Rate Cut in 2025

Policymakers agreed inflation had eased but remained “somewhat elevated.” Also, uncertainty around the outlook had diminished, though not disappeared.

Crucially, most participants said a rate cut WOULD “likely be appropriate” in 2025. A few indicated they would consider cutting rates as early as the next meeting, if data trends continue.

However, the minutes also highlighted divisions. Some Fed officials argued against any cuts this year, citing stubborn inflation and strong labor market resilience. 

Recession odds have dropped to the lowest level since January.

But Amazon Prime Day sales are down -41% on day one.

Recession talks back on the table? pic.twitter.com/uYfQirsk00

They warned that short-term inflation expectations remain elevated, especially among households and businesses.

The Fed flagged recent tariff increases as a new source of inflation risk. While the majority believes these effects will be temporary or modest, several members expressed concern about possible second-order impacts on prices and expectations.

For the crypto market, the dovish tilt reinforces investor optimism. Bitcoin and ethereum remained steady near $109,000 and $2,700 respectively, as traders priced in the growing chance of monetary easing. 

Lower interest rates typically benefit risk assets by improving liquidity and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding tokens.

It's official:

President TRUMP is now calling for the first 300+ basis point interest rate cut in US history.

This would be 3 TIMES larger than the 100 bps cut on March 15th, 2020, the largest in history.

So, what happens if the Fed does this? Let us explain.

(a thread) pic.twitter.com/k3Bo0ri1zY

Still, market participants await key upcoming data—especially June’s CPI report due July 11—which could shape the Fed’s next move. Any sign of inflation stalling could delay cuts and dampen crypto momentum.

Overall, the Fed signaled that the door is open to easing, but not yet unlocked. 

Crypto markets will closely watch the July 30 meeting for confirmation, as monetary policy continues to be a key driver of digital asset performance in 2025.