Goldman: Hormuz Traffic Back to Two-Thirds, 5 Million Barrels Daily via 'Dark Ships'

Goldman Sachs believes oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to 15–16 million barrels per day, but visible shipping data shows only about 10 million barrels. The 5-million-barrel gap stems from a large number of tankers transiting "in the dark" with their AIS systems switched off. After incorporating dark-ship data, Goldman estimates the net supply shock at about 7.9 million barrels per day. In addition, the expansion of dark-ship activity has led to global inventories being underestimated by about 39 million barrels, meaning the actual supply-demand balance may be looser than apparent data suggest.

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, but the market is seeing only the tip of the iceberg.

On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs strategist Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and her team told clients that Gulf oil exports have rebounded to 15–16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels.

However, visible shipping data shows only about 10 million barrels per day. The 5-million-barrel gap is what the team calls a "surge in dark-ship transits"—tankers evading Iranian tracking and interception by switching off their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS).

Brent crude has risen to $95 per barrel, reflecting that the market is pricing in a prolonged "no-deal in the Middle East" stalemate as the base-case scenario.

Meanwhile, several Trump administration officials have made optimistic statements this week about the recovery of oil flows through the strait, but Goldman's data reveals that the actual situation is far more complex than the official narrative.

Officials Declare "Hormuz Is Back," Data Gap Raises Questions

Senior Trump administration officials made a flurry of statements this week about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a CNBC interview on Monday that more than 17 million barrels per day of oil have passed through the critical waterway, the highest level since the six-month conflict began.

Trump then announced on Truth Social, "Hormuz oil is back!" Vice President Vance also said:

Fifteen million barrels came out of the strait last night, and it's because of American action.

However, visible shipping data (on a seven-day moving average) shows flows of only about 10 million barrels per day, a significant gap from the figures cited by officials.

The Goldman team noted in its report that this gap has widened sharply over the past two weeks, mainly because a large number of tankers are switching off their AIS systems when transiting the strait on the side closer to the Omani coast.

After incorporating dark-ship data, Goldman estimates the net shock to Persian Gulf oil flows this week at about 7.9 million barrels per day. While still a major supply shock, this is substantially smaller than what was suggested by relying solely on visible shipping data.

At the same time, Goldman noted that, due to the Houthi threat, Saudi Arabia has begun rerouting oil flows from the port of Yanbu back to eastern ports. Red Sea exports (via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, and the SUMED pipeline) fell by 4.5 million barrels per day in August compared with July, providing a partial offset.

Dark-Ship Surge Forces Inventory Revisions

The expansion of dark-ship activity is also having a knock-on effect on global crude inventory data.

Goldman believes that because high-frequency visible data underestimate the actual volume of crude in transit, current inventory readings may be understated.

After upward revisions, Goldman estimates that global visible inventories are about 39 million barrels higher than the original readings for the same period, with inventory drawdowns over the past 30 days running at about 2.1 million barrels per day. This means the actual supply-demand balance in the oil market may be looser than apparent data indicate.

The Grigsby team wrote that the disruption at the Hormuz chokepoint is forcing Gulf producers and shippers to adapt faster than Wall Street's tracking models can react—oil is still flowing, but an increasing share is "moving into the dark."