Evercore’s Top Analyst Slams FedEx (FDX) with Downgrade Right Before Q1 Earnings—Here’s the Shocking Reason

Wall Street's whispering—and Evercore isn't subtle. One of its top analysts just hit FedEx with a downgrade ahead of Q1 earnings. No sugarcoating, no corporate fluff—just a cold, hard reassessment that’s got traders buzzing.

Behind the Downgrade

Soft global demand, rising operational costs, and shaky guidance confidence drove the call. It’s not just a hunch—the numbers aren’t adding up, and Evercore isn’t waiting around for the earnings release to say it.

Timing Is Everything

Slapping a downgrade right before earnings? That’s a power move. It signals serious doubt in FedEx’s near-term performance—maybe even a hint that the upcoming report won’t be pretty.

Another day, another analyst playing safe right before the numbers drop—almost like they know something retail doesn’t. Classic Wall Street chess.

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Wall Street expects FedEx to report earnings per share (EPS) of $3.64, reflecting a 1.1% year-over-year growth. Meanwhile, revenue is projected to come in at $21.7 billion, reflecting a 0.4% increase compared to the prior-year quarter. Despite muted revenue growth, FedEx’s earnings are expected to rise due to the company’s aggressive cost reduction initiatives.

Top Evercore Analyst Moves to the Sidelines on FDX Stock

Chappell highlighted that, according to Evercore’s monthly proprietary parcel macro correlations data, August numbers were worse than expected, particularly for industrial production and retail sales. Based on these data points, the 5-star analyst lowered his Fiscal 2026 EPS estimate to $17.99 from $19.16.

Furthermore, Chappell contended that the macro correlations data missed the incremental pressure from the global removal of de minimis exemptions and the persistent volume challenges at FDX Freight. That said, the analyst believes that FedEx can mitigate some of these headwinds with the restructuring efforts under its Network 2.0 initiative, although cost efficiencies are likely to be seen in the second half of the year.

However, Chappell remains cautious as he believes that with increasing volume and revenue pressures, the company’s productivity enhancements alone will not be enough to fully offset macro headwinds. He sees modest upside in FDX stock over the NEAR term, particularly if estimates continue to move lower. Even after considering the FDX Freight split next year, Chappell sees only 11% upside, with still nine months remaining until execution.

Is FDX Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Heading into Q1 FY26 earnings, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on FedEx stock based on 15 Buys, five Holds, and two Sell recommendations. The average FDX stock price target of $266.32 indicates about 17% upside potential from current levels. FDX stock has declined about 18% year-to-date.