Darden Restaurants (DRI) Q1 Earnings Drop Tomorrow: Here’s What Wall Street Is Hungry For

Darden's fiscal feast-or-famine moment hits the tape tomorrow—and the Street's appetite is ravenous.

Earnings Season Appetizer

All eyes on same-store sales growth. Analysts want proof that Olive Garden's endless breadsticks strategy still delivers endless returns. Commodity costs chewing through margins? Labor inflation burning the kitchen? The numbers will tell.

The Main Course: Guidance

Forward-looking statements matter more than backward glances. Does DRI see consumer dining demand holding up? Or are wallets tightening faster than a restaurant manager's smile during a Saturday night rush?

Portfolio Performance

LongHorn Steakhouse sizzling? Capital Grille still courting the expense-account crowd? Segment breakdowns reveal where the real meat—and profit—lies.

Bottom Line: A classic 'beat and raise' could send shares soaring. Anything less might leave investors reaching for the antacid. After all, in restaurant stocks, everyone's a critic until the EPS number drops.

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Meanwhile, revenues are expected to grow by 10% from the year-ago quarter to $3.04 billion, according to data from the TipRanks Forecast page. It’s important to note that Darden Restaurants has outperformed EPS estimates in seven out of the past nine quarters.

Analyst’s Take Ahead of Darden’s Q1 Earnings

Heading into the Q1 print, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger reiterated a Buy rating on Darden Restaurants stock with a price target of $245. The analyst expects solid momentum across Darden’s key brands, with earnings upside likely driven by stronger sales leverage.

He sees Olive Garden same-store sales coming in around 6%–7.5%, ahead of the 5.9% consensus, while LongHorn Steakhouse is expected to deliver mid-6% growth versus the 5.3% estimate. For context, Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse are two of the biggest restaurant chains owned by Darden Restaurants.

Looking ahead, Geiger anticipates that management will reaffirm most of its FY26 guidance, which calls for 7%–8% sales growth, 60–65 new restaurant openings, and adjusted EPS of $10.50–$10.70. He highlighted that key initiatives like marketing initiatives and menu innovation should keep trends positive into the second quarter.

Options Traders Anticipate a Minor Move

Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings MOVE is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.

Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting a 5.43% move in either direction.

Is DRI a Good Stock to Buy?

Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Darden Restaurants stock based on 15 Buys and five Holds. The average DRI stock price target of $238.70 indicates upside potential of 13.65% from current levels.