Tesla’s Robotaxi Lag: Can Musk Catch Uber and Waymo’s Autonomous Dominance by 2025?

While Tesla fiddles with Full Self-Driving beta updates, Uber and Waymo are eating its AV lunch.

Uber just deployed its 10,000th autonomous vehicle in Phoenix—meanwhile, Waymo's driverless taxis now complete over 100,000 weekly paid rides across three major metros. Tesla? Still stuck in 'geofenced demo' purgatory.

Here's why the delay matters: First-movers are locking in municipal contracts and customer habits. Every month Tesla's robotaxis stay hypothetical is another month competitors cement their lead.

Musk's promised 2024 robotaxi unveil came and went with zero operational fleet. Now Wall Street's patience—and that $800 billion valuation—hangs on delivering what Uber and Waymo already scaled.

Maybe Tesla should've spent less time tweeting memes and more time securing DMV permits. Just saying.

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Uber has partnered with Waymo to offer autonomous rides in Atlanta. It is worth noting here that Uber does not operate its own fleet of autonomous vehicles (AVs) but has partnered with Waymo to offer autonomous rides in other cities as well. Passengers can choose between an autonomous ride or a person-driven ride in Atlanta with a single click. The service is currently available in limited areas.

Tesla Rivals Are Expanding Their Footprint

Tesla rolled out its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, on Sunday, June 22. The company is facing initial hiccups as any other launch. The company’s fully autonomous Model Y taxis were seen driving the wrong lane, speeding, and braking hard in videos posted on social media. This has caught the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) attention, which is investigating the matter.

Meanwhile, the Uber-Waymo collaboration already has about 100 autonomous vehicles offering ride-hailing services on Uber’s platform in Austin. There have been no complaints since its launch in March. Additionally, Waymo independently offers autonomous ride-hailing services in San Francisco and Los Angeles through its Waymo One app. Currently, Waymo operates a total of 1,500 AVs in the U.S.

Autonomous Ride-Hailing Market Is Getting Crowded

Tesla also faces competition from China’s Baidu (BIDU) Apollo Go and WeRide (WRD), and will compete with Amazon’s (AMZN) Zoox in the U.S. once Zoox launches services in Las Vegas and San Francisco.  

Although Tesla was once hailed as the autonomous leader, the company has been slow to launch its robotaxi services. Its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is also being probed by regulators for accidents that occurred during periods of reduced visibility, including a fatal crash in 2023. The coming months will be crucial as Tesla works to refine its technology and expand its robotaxi services in an increasingly crowded market.

What Is the Price Target for TSLA Stock?

On TipRanks, the average Tesla price target of $348.39 implies 2.3% upside potential from current levels. Also, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on nine Buys, six Holds, and one Sell rating. Year-to-date, TSLA stock has lost 15.7%.