‘This Is Just the Start’—Why Joby Aviation’s Stock Could Be the Next Big Play

Flying cars? More like flying profits. Joby Aviation’s stock is turning heads, and one investor insists the rally hasn’t even hit cruising altitude yet.

Why the hype? The eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) sector is heating up, and Joby’s tech—backed by Toyota and Uber—is leading the charge. Forget moon shots; this is about sky-high returns.

But let’s not ignore the elephant in the room: the market’s love affair with ‘next big thing’ stocks that sometimes crash harder than a prototype with dead batteries. Still, if you’re betting on the future of urban air mobility, Joby might just be your ticket.

One thing’s clear: Wall Street’s appetite for disruption is insatiable—even if half the ‘revolutionary’ companies end up as cautionary tales.

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Joby, which is developing a quiet, all-electric air taxi capable of carrying four passengers at 200 mph, appears well-positioned to make the most of this opportunity. However, there’s one key issue to remember here: Joby is still at the pre-revenue stage, and it commands a market cap of nearly $7 billion. And that, says investor Pythia Research (PR), “embodies sheer investor hope.”

“With a ~$7 billion valuation and no commercial revenues, Joby effectively trades at infinite forward earnings and sales multiples,” PR goes on to say. “Such a valuation is 100% based on execution as it trades at very high forward Price/Sales multiple, reflecting a nearly pure speculative premium.”

That’s not to say the company can’t grow into such a valuation. If Joby ramps up to delivering hundreds of aircraft per year by 2027, as suggested by its production plans and commercial trajectory, PR thinks its current valuation “could be justified or even conservative.” On the other hand, if things don’t go according to plan, namely if there are delays in certification or weak market uptake, that could lead to significant downside for investors.

While Toyota’s $500 million investment and hands-on support in manufacturing help ease liquidity concerns and boost credibility, until Joby shows stronger orders or positive cash flow, PR believes regulatory and capital risks remain key concerns.

Nevertheless, looking at the company’s objectives, PR thinks they are not merely pipe dreams. Management aims to launch service in Dubai by 2026, secure FAA certification by the end of 2025, and start U.S. commercial flights soon after. While ambitious, these timelines are realistic considering the FAA’s “reported engagement” and Joby’s progress, having submitted 62% of the remaining FAA Stage 4 documents out of over 13,000 total.

As the current regulatory and manufacturing front-runner with early military monetization via contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), and global JV partnerships, especially through its partnership with Virgin Atlantic in the UK, Joby is “uniquely positioned” to capture a dominant share of the market. “If the company converts its certification lead and capital-light global model into scaled commercial deployment, its EV could represent just the beginning of a multi-decade compounding story,” PR summed up.

All things considered, Pythia Research views Joby as a standout in the emerging eVTOL space and believes the stock presents a compelling entry point at current levels, assigning it a Buy rating. (To watch Pythia Research’s track record, click here)

Amongst Walls Street’s analysts, Joby claims a mix of 3 Buys and Holds, each, and an additional 1 Sell, for a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Going by the $8.86 average target, a year from now, shares will be changing hands for a 0.34% premium — not exactly something to write home about. (See)

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