SoFi’s Q3 Earnings Drop Tomorrow: Options Traders Brace for 11.96% Market Earthquake

Wall Street's holding its breath as SoFi prepares to drop Q3 numbers—and the options market's pricing in pure volatility.

The Implied Move Calculation

That 11.96% swing isn't just a random guess—it's baked into option premiums across both calls and puts. Traders are essentially betting the farm on whether SoFi beats or misses expectations.

Earnings Season Roulette

Another quarter, another earnings circus where analysts pretend they can predict consumer behavior and management guidance. The real money moves happen in the derivatives market while everyone else watches the headline numbers.

Financial stocks remain the casino where everyone claims they're counting cards—until the house reveals its hand tomorrow.

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Of late, the company has been in the spotlight for its growing digital banking business, student loan activity, and expansion into financial services. However, investors are likely concerned about the impact of regulatory changes affecting student loans and fintech platforms, along with mixed consumer sentiment on SoFi’s upcoming earnings report.

Investors will be watching how falling interest rates, budget changes, and consumer trends affect SoFi’s loans, deposits, and profits trends, especially as student loan payments have resumed and competition in online banking is heating up.

Expectations From SOFI’s Q3 Results

Wall Street is expecting SOFI to report earnings of $0.08 per share, up 60% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, analysts project revenues of $888.91 million, down from $989.49 million in the year-ago quarter.

Ahead of the company’s Q3 earnings, JPMorgan analyst Reginald Smith increased the price target for SoFi stock to $26 from $24 while maintaining a Hold rating. The Top analyst highlighted SoFi’s consistent history of beating expectations and raising guidance, which supports a more optimistic outlook for the stock.

Smith also noted stable credit performance and strong demand from loan buyers as key reasons for the target hike.

Is SOFI Stock a Good Buy?

Turning to Wall Street, SOFI stock has a Hold consensus rating based on five Buys, eight Holds, and four Sells assigned in the last three months. At $22.46, the average SOFI stock price target implies a 24.83% downside risk.