Bitcoin’s Explosive Rally Isn’t Fed-Driven—Market Structure Is Fueling the Fire, Say Analysts

Forget rate cuts—Bitcoin's latest surge is rewriting the rules of crypto momentum.

Market mechanics, not macroeconomic policy, are now calling the shots as BTC smashes through resistance levels. Here's why traders are flipping their playbooks.

Institutional flows and liquidity shifts are creating a supply crunch that'd make a VC blush. Meanwhile, Wall Street's still trying to price in last quarter's ETF inflows.

One hedge fund manager quipped: 'The Fed's playing checkers while crypto markets solve quantum equations—with leverage.'

Market structure, not macro, is steering the rally

What distinguishes this rally from previous surges is its foundation. Analysts aren’t pointing to central banks or macro volatility as the spark. Instead, they’re watching structural flows inside the crypto market itself, most notably the direct impact of spot ETF demand.

Bitcoin ETFs logged their biggest single day of inflows in 2025 on Thursday, pulling in $1.18 billion, according to SoSoValue data. ethereum ETFs followed suit with their second-strongest performance of the year at $383 million. These are not speculative futures bets or proxy trades through microcap equities. They are direct, capital-intensive commitments to spot assets.

Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, views the breakout through that lens.

“In my view, this isn’t a macro-driven rally, but rather an isolated event. That said, recent U.S. policy developments such as fiscal expansion and expectations of further monetary easing have created a backdrop that is undeniably favorable for Bitcoin. We’re seeing Bitcoin treasury strategies proliferate across companies, which reflects growing institutional confidence in BTC as a balance sheet asset,” he also said in a statement sent to crypto.news.

Sondergaard emphasized that Bitcoin’s clean break through key liquidation levels, and its ability to hold above them, acted as a trigger point for this latest market-wide rally.

What comes next hinges on sustainability. Past rallies relied on macroeconomic tailwinds. This one is testing whether crypto’s internal mechanics, such as ETF flows, corporate adoption, and derivatives markets—can independently support valuations. If so, we may be witnessing the birth of a new market paradigm, one where crypto writes its own rules.