Rigetti Computing ($RGTI) Dips 3.2% to $15.44—Quantum Hype Meets Wall Street Skepticism

Quantum darling Rigetti Computing just proved Wall Street still plays by classical rules. Despite buzzing about a potential industry leap, $RGTI stock slid 3.2% to $15.44—because nothing kills a tech rally like actual financial performance.

The Quantum Disconnect

While labs cheer coherence time milestones, traders see red ink. Rigetti's 8-K filings whisper 'burn rate' while its qubits whisper 'Schrödinger's ROI.'

Short-Term Qubits, Long-Term Problems

Investors clearly priced this 'breakthrough' at exactly -$0.51 per share. Maybe next earnings call they'll announce superpositional EBITDA—both positive and negative simultaneously.

TLDRs:

• Rigetti stock dropped 3.2% to $15.44 despite recent gains and a major quantum hardware breakthrough.
• Ankaa-3 system reached 99.5% fidelity with 36 qubits, putting Rigetti in multichip leadership.
• Quantum market forecast to explode after 2030; Rigetti sees potential demand of up to $30 billion.
• Some analysts warn valuations may echo past tech bubbles as capital raises increase across the sector.

Shares of Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) closed Friday at $15.44, down 3.2% despite a strong month that saw the stock gain nearly 40% in July.

In after-hours trading, Rigetti saw a modest rebound, rising 0.58% to $15.53. The decline comes as a slight correction following enthusiasm surrounding a major technical breakthrough announced just days ago.

Last week, Rigetti unveiled progress on its Ankaa-3 quantum computing system, which integrates four 9-qubit chips and achieves a 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity, an important milestone in quantum accuracy. The achievement briefly pushed Rigetti shares up over 50% earlier in the month.

Ankaa-3 Positions Rigetti as Multichip Leader

The Ankaa-3 system’s breakthrough positions Rigetti as the creator of the largest known multichip quantum system. While other competitors have achieved higher fidelity scores, the multichip integration is a step forward in building scalable quantum computers. Fidelity, or how accurately a quantum gate performs calculations, remains the sector’s central technical hurdle.

Unlike classical computers that use binary bits (0 or 1), quantum computers use qubits that represent probabilities of 0 or 1, which collapses into a fixed state during readout. This quantum advantage could someday outperform classical systems in solving certain complex problems, but only if fidelity improves further.

Despite these advancements, Rigetti’s technology still lags behind in absolute gate fidelity compared to other competitors like IonQ and D-Wave. Nevertheless, the company’s pace of innovation is being watched closely as the industry builds toward practical quantum applications by 2030.

Bubble Warnings Surface as Valuations Surge

Even with the optimism, some analysts are warning of a possible quantum bubble. Rigetti, along with peers IonQ, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc., has seen meteoric stock gains, ranging from 500% to over 1,500% in the past year. This has prompted comparisons to past bubbles like the dot-com and COVID-era surges.

These companies have also aggressively raised capital recently. Rigetti alone completed a $350 million equity raise in June. Critics argue that management may be taking advantage of overvalued share prices while market enthusiasm remains high.

Eyes on 2030: The Real Growth Horizon

The next five years will be critical. Rigetti projects limited demand, around $1 to $2 billion annually, until 2030, largely from research institutions. But after that, industry-wide demand could spike to $15 to $30 billion annually as enterprise and government use cases materialize.

For investors, the appeal lies in long-term potential. If Rigetti captures even a modest share of the future market, today’s $5 billion valuation could double or triple. Still, the risk remains high: if the technology falters or competitors leap ahead, the stock could become worthless. Analysts recommend limiting exposure to a small percentage of a portfolio to manage this volatility.

Whether Rigetti’s Ankaa-3 system marks the start of a new quantum era remains to be seen. For now, the stock’s slip may simply reflect profit-taking after a powerful run.