Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Crumbles as Money Printing Reshapes Crypto Markets

Central bank money printers just rewrote Bitcoin's rulebook—and the old patterns aren't coming back.

The End of an Era

For years, traders religiously tracked Bitcoin's four-year halving cycles like clockwork. Each reduction in mining rewards historically sparked massive bull runs, creating predictable patterns that shaped investment strategies across crypto markets.

Money Printing Over Mechanics

Now unprecedented monetary expansion from global central banks has bulldozed those historical patterns. The traditional supply-driven models that dominated crypto analysis for a decade suddenly look quaint in an environment where liquidity injections dwarf mining reward changes.

New Rules, New Game

Market dynamics have shifted from pure crypto fundamentals to macro-economic dominance. Institutional money flows now move Bitcoin prices more powerfully than any halving event, creating volatility patterns that defy historical comparisons.

Another case of traditional finance managing to break something while trying to fix everything else.

TLDR

• BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is dead because cycles are driven by monetary policy and money supply, not timing patterns
• Past Bitcoin cycles ended when the US Federal Reserve and Chinese central banks tightened monetary conditions, not because of four-year patterns
• The current cycle differs due to the US Treasury releasing $2.5 trillion into markets, President Trump’s easier monetary policy, and bank deregulation plans
• The Federal Reserve continues cutting rates despite inflation being above target, with two more cuts predicted in 2025
• China is shifting from deflationary policy to neutral monetary policy, removing a barrier that would have ended the cycle

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has declared the four-year Bitcoin cycle dead. He says the real driver behind crypto price movements is monetary policy, not arbitrary timing patterns.

Arthur Hayes says the old 4-year $BTC cycle is dead. Macro is now king.📉

– QE > halving
– Debt spirals > mining models
– Yield volatility > cycle theory

Forget timelines. Bitcoin's future is riding central bank chaos.🧠 #Bitcoin #Macro #CryptoMarkets #BTC pic.twitter.com/lItnIXed04

— ₿itBlitz (@BitBlitz) October 9, 2025

Hayes published his analysis in a blog post this week. He explained that Bitcoin price cycles follow the supply and quantity of money in USD and Chinese yuan.

The traditional four-year cycle theory links bitcoin movements to halving events. Hayes rejects this idea entirely.

Money Supply Drives Bitcoin Cycles

According to Hayes, past Bitcoin cycles ended when central banks tightened monetary conditions. The first bull run coincided with Federal Reserve quantitative easing and Chinese credit expansion in the early 2010s.

That cycle ended in late 2013 when both the Fed and Chinese central bank slowed money printing. The second cycle was driven primarily by yuan credit explosion and currency devaluation in 2015.

The third cycle during COVID-19 ran on USD liquidity alone. China stayed relatively restrained during that period.

The cycle ended when the Fed began tightening in late 2021. Hayes points to these historical patterns as evidence that money supply matters more than four-year timelines.

Current Cycle Shows Different Conditions

Arthur Hayes identifies several factors making this cycle unique. The US Treasury is draining $2.5 trillion from the Fed’s Reverse Repo program into markets.

The Treasury is accomplishing this by issuing more Treasury bills. President TRUMP wants to pursue easier monetary policy to grow out of debt.

Plans to deregulate banks aim to increase lending across the economy. The Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts despite inflation remaining above its target.

CME futures markets show 94% odds of an October rate cut. There is an 80% probability of another cut in December.

China’s Policy Shift Changes the Game

Hayes argues China will not fuel this rally as much as previous cycles. However, Chinese policymakers are moving to end deflation rather than drain liquidity.

This shift removes a major obstacle that killed previous cycles. US monetary expansion can now drive Bitcoin higher without Chinese deflation working against it.

Hayes wrote that policymakers in Washington and Beijing clearly state money will be cheaper and more plentiful. Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this probable future.

The combination of easier US monetary policy and less restrictive Chinese policy creates new conditions. These conditions do not fit the traditional four-year pattern.

Some analysts still believe in cyclical patterns. Onchain analytics firm Glassnode stated in August that Bitcoin’s price action echoes prior patterns.

Gemini’s head of APAC region Saad Ahmed told reporters he thinks some FORM of cycle will likely continue. Hayes maintains his position that monetary conditions will determine Bitcoin’s trajectory going forward.