CBA (CBAV3) Shares Surge 13% on Rumors of Arab Interest in Acquisition (2025-10-09)

• Why Are CBA Shares Rallying?
• Who Else Is in the Bidding Mix?
• What Makes CBA a Hot Target?
• How Reliable Are These Rumors?
• What’s Next for Investors?
• Key Data Points
• FAQs: CBA Takeover Rumors

Shares of Brazilian aluminum giant CBA (CBAV3) skyrocketed as much as 13% on October 8, 2025, fueled by market rumors that Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is eyeing a takeover. The stock, trading outside the Ibovespa index, has already gained nearly 25% in October alone. Analysts speculate this could lead to a bidding war, with Chinese firm Chinalco also reportedly interested. Here’s what’s driving the frenzy—and whether the HYPE is justified.

Why Are CBA Shares Rallying?

CBA’s stock (CBAV3) surged to an intraday high of R$4.60 (+13.02%) before settling at R$4.47 (+9.83%) by midday. This marks its second consecutive day of gains, following a 2.5% rise on October 7. The rally comes after Reuters reported that EGA, backed by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala and Dubai’s sovereign wealth fund, is exploring a buyout with Morgan Stanley advising. "The market’s betting on a premium bid," says a BTCC analyst. "CBA’s low-carbon aluminum operations are a rare asset."

Who Else Is in the Bidding Mix?

China’s state-owned Chinalco has also expressed interest, per Valor Econômico. CBA’s parent company, Votorantim S.A. (which owns 69%), has been fielding offers since August 2025 when it sought investors for its $2.5 billion Rondon bauxite project. XP Investimentos notes Rio Tinto and Alcoa were previously rumored as suitors. "A control sale isn’t guaranteed, but speculation alone is fueling momentum," their report states.

What Makes CBA a Hot Target?

CBA operates Brazil’s only fully integrated aluminum chain—from bauxite mining to smelting—with facilities across seven states. Its low-carbon production aligns with global decarbonization trends, a key draw for EGA. "In my experience, ESG-compliant assets command premiums," shares a São Paulo-based trader. XP’s R$9 price target (121% upside) reflects this optimism.

How Reliable Are These Rumors?

CBA hasn’t commented, but market reactions suggest traders see substance here. Historical data from TradingView shows CBA’s volume spiked 300% above its 30-day average. "Deals like this often leak intentionally to gauge interest," notes a BTCC strategist. Still, with Votorantim historically reluctant to sell, caution is warranted.

What’s Next for Investors?

Short-term volatility is likely until clarity emerges. The stock’s RSI hit 78—deep in overbought territory—hinting at a possible pullback. Long-term holders might ride the wave, but day traders should brace for swings. As one fund manager quipped, "This could be the start of a desert storm… or just a mirage."

Key Data Points

• Current Price (10/9/2025): R$4.47
• October Gain: +25%
• Market Cap: R$2.65B
• XP Price Target: R$9 (+121%)