Steve Cohen’s Grim Forecast: 45% Recession Risk Looms—April Stock Lows Could Return

Billionaire investor Steve Cohen just dropped a bombshell: a 45% chance of recession could send markets spiraling back to April’s lows. The hedge fund titan’s warning cuts through Wall Street’s usual sugarcoating—traders might want to buckle up.

Markets hate uncertainty, and Cohen’s math spells trouble. With inflation still sticky and Fed rate cuts stuck in limbo, those April lows suddenly look like a tempting ’I told you so’ for the bears.

Here’s the kicker: while traditional markets sweat, crypto’s volatility might suddenly look like a feature, not a bug. After all, when fiat systems wobble, decentralized alternatives get their moment. Just don’t tell the SEC.

Market Volatility And Recession Risks Rise Amid Trump Tariff Shift

Cohen Predicts Potential Return to April Lows

The Steve Cohen recession warning includes expectations that stocks could, at the time of writing, retest recent lows.

Cohen was clear about the fact that:

This assessment was delivered after the suspension of reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and China triggered a rally. The S&P 500 jumped 4% this week, recovering from April’s sell-off.

Recession Probability Remains High

Despite TRUMP tariff news showing some improvement, the US recession forecast remains troubling, and experts are taking notice.

Cohen said:

Cohen explained further:

The billionaire also noted:

Market Implications and Stock Risks

Steve Cohen’s recession warning suggests that market volatility warning signs should really not be ignored. His 45% recession probability exceeds typical baseline risks during stable periods. Stocks retesting April lows WOULD represent an extra concern with a 10-15% decline from current levels.

Such point may develop into broader stock market cash concerns as far as the economic situation worsens. Although warning of no imminent market collapse, Cohen implies there is a lot of correction potential.

Trump tariff news continues to affect the market mood, with a temporary alleviation of China-trade-tensions countered in part by ongoing inflation issues as well as interest rate worries. The recession prediction made in the US by Cohen deserves attention considering his experience in the market and the economy research tools at his disposal.

Market volatility warning signs are blinking as the S&P 500 looks “toppy” from Cohen’s perspective who also owns New York Mets. Investors should brace themselves for storms on the horizon as long as the stock market crash 2025 scenario is possible when the weaknesses of the economy present themselves real soon.