Raízen (RAIZ4) Soars: Sale of Mills and "Carbono Zero" Operation Fuel Stock Rally in 2025

• Why Did Raízen’s Stock Jump Today?
• How Significant Is the "Carbono Zero" Operation?
• What’s Next for Raízen’s Strategy?
• FAQ: Your Raízen Rally Questions Answered

Raízen’s shares (RAIZ4) surged 5.5% on August 30, 2025, following the sale of two sugarcane mills for R$1.3 billion and Optimism around Brazil’s crackdown on fuel-sector crime. While XP analysts downplayed the financial impact, the market cheered reduced leverage and a cleaner industry outlook. Meanwhile, the "Carbono Zero" operation exposed ties between the PCC gang and over 1,000 gas stations, sparking hopes for reduced tax evasion. ---

Why Did Raízen’s Stock Jump Today?

Raízen (RAIZ4) climbed 5.5% to R$1.15 by mid-morning, marking its second straight rally after selling the Rio Brilhante and Passatempo mills in Mato Grosso do Sul. The deal nets R$1.3 billion and saves R$218 million in maintenance costs—a welcome MOVE for a company grappling with 4.5x leverage. But XP’s Leonardo Alencar isn’t popping champagne: "The sale only trims leverage by 0.1x. Even ignoring EBITDA losses from the assets, it’s a drop in the bucket." The mills sold at just US$40.8/ton (or US$47.5 including Capex cuts), hinting at weak demand for ethanol assets. "Future sales might fetch even lower multiples," warns XP.

How Significant Is the "Carbono Zero" Operation?

Yesterday’s 3% rally traced back to Brazil’s massive anti-crime sweep, which linked the PCC gang to 1,600 fuel trucks, nine mills, and 1,000+ gas stations. BTG’s Thiago Duarte notes the targeted mills process 16M tons/year—2.5% of Brazil’s Center-South output. "If authorities disrupt these operations during peak harvest, it could tighten sugar/ethanol supply," he says. The raid reignited hopes of curbing rampant fuel adulteration and tax fraud. "This cleanup could be a turning point," adds Duarte, though he cautions that impacts depend on how quickly seized mills resume operations.

What’s Next for Raízen’s Strategy?

The mill sales align with Raízen’s debt-reduction push, but XP argues the company needs bolder moves. BTCC’s energy sector analyst (who requested anonymity) suggests: "Divesting at low multiples isn’t ideal, but liquidity matters more now." Meanwhile, the "Carbono Zero" fallout may benefit legit players like Raízen by leveling the playing field. Historical context: Brazil’s fuel sector has long battled "phantom" gas stations and smuggled ethanol—issues that squeezed margins for compliant firms. As one trader joked, "PCC’s CFO must be sweating."

FAQ: Your Raízen Rally Questions Answered

How much did Raízen earn from the mill sales?

The company secured R$1.3 billion upfront, plus R$218 million in saved Capex.

Will the PCC crackdown raise fuel prices?

BTG estimates a short-term supply crunch is possible if seized mills halt operations during harvest season.

Is Raízen still overleveraged?

XP calculates the sale only reduces net debt/EBITDA from 4.5x to 4.4x—far from comfort levels.