Why Bitcoin’s Old Rules Are Crumbling in 2025’s Crypto Revolution
Bitcoin’s playbook is breaking. The 2025 market isn’t playing by Satoshi’s rules—here’s why.
The Halving Hangover
Post-2024 halving dynamics defied historical patterns. Miner rewards dropped, but institutional inflows rewrote the script.
ETF Tsunami
Spot Bitcoin ETFs now dictate price action more than whale wallets. Wall Street’s algorithms don’t care about your ‘HODL’ memes.
Regulatory Roulette
CBDCs and MiCA regulations forced BTC to compete on compliance—something no cypherpunk ever put in a whitepaper.
The New Calculus
When BlackRock’s Bitcoin fund moves more coins in a day than Mt. Gox ever held, your technical analysis charts become wallpaper.
Wake up: The asset didn’t change. The game did. (And your Lambo dealer still only takes cash.)
- Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle model is breaking down amid shifting institutional behavior.
- Former cycle patterns like whale accumulation and retail-driven selloffs no longer apply in today’s market.
- Crypto expert admits past predictions failed and calls for data-driven, adaptive strategies going forward.
Bitcoin price predictions have been really surprising following CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju publicly apologized for his inaccurate guess of an end to the bull cycle. Last April 2025, Ju observed that Bitcoin’s bullish trend was set to be depleted.
However, he recently posted on X (formerly Twitter) that he understood that the crypto market changed very fast, and his once accurate hypothesis of markets no longer applies to current trends.
#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.
My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.
Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we…
Ju’s reasoning relied on the general understanding that Bitcoin falls into a four-year bull and bear cycle stimulated primarily by whale accumulation and retail speculation. Big holders, or “whales”, once stacked up in declining markets and sold into retail manias.
However, as Ju opines, no more. Rather than selling their holdings to retail traders, whales are transferring theirs into institutional treasuries as well as long-term funds, breaking up the liquidity cycle that analysts relied on. He noted: “Buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.”
Realizing what his prediction WOULD entail, Ju apologized to investors and followers who were able to act on his analysis. “I apologize sincerely if your investment was impacted due to my prediction. In the future, I will be more careful with projections and will make every effort to provide data-driven insights,” he wrote.
He further emphasized that new forms of analysis would be required to manage the constantly evolving digital asset ecosystem, with conventional models no longer sufficient for predicting behavioral trends in markets.
Bitcoin Peak Expected by October 2025?
While Ju calls for a new approach, some argue bitcoin still adheres to previous market trends. Bitcoin Magazine Pro analysts believe there will be a top in or around October 2025, arguing that accumulation and trading activity right now represent previous bull rallies.
When comparing our current Bitcoin cycle to previous ones, the data is suggesting that our bull market will TOP OUT within the next 3 MONTHS!
Is this likely, or can wee see evidence that this time really is different for BTC…
Watch the full video here:
pic.twitter.com/YGCZ2WEgKx
Renowned crypto commentator Ran Neuner (Ran Neer) suggests that the going rate currently looks good for a further bull rally into the end of 2025 due to increasing institutional involvement and mass adoption.
With a maturing Bitcoin and increasingly diversified players in the market, employing outdated theories can be hazardous. Ki Young Ju’s admission highlights the importance of versatility and ongoing learning for crypto investing.
Institutional players’ new dynamics on cycles require investors to be ever vigilant, take multi-dimensional strategies, and be open to changing trends in the market.
