Bitcoin Hits Pause: Price Consolidates Near 4-Hour Moving Averages Amid Major Supply Rotation
Bitcoin's bull run hits a speed bump. The king of crypto is locked in a tense standoff with its own moving averages, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics.
The Consolidation Zone
Forget parabolic moonshots for a moment. The action is now in the consolidation. Bitcoin's price is dancing around key 4-hour moving averages—a classic technical battleground where short-term momentum meets longer-term trend. It's not a crash; it's a recalibration. The market is catching its breath, deciding its next major move.
Supply in Motion
This isn't just idle price action. Beneath the surface, a significant supply rotation is underway. Old hands are taking profits, new believers are accumulating, and weak hands are getting shaken out. It's the financial equivalent of musical chairs, and the music just slowed down. This phase is crucial—it either builds a stronger foundation for the next leg up or reveals underlying exhaustion. (A process Wall Street would charge a 2% management fee for, by the way.)
What's Next for BTC?
Watch those moving averages. A decisive break above could reignite the rally, confirming the rotation as healthy profit-taking. A sustained breakdown, however, might signal deeper correction territory. This is where narratives are tested and trader conviction gets priced in. One thing's certain: in crypto, stagnation never lasts long.
Bitcoin Supply Moves to New Investors
Data provided by VanEck in the middle of December shows the transition of coins from long-term holders of the Bitcoin market to newer investors taking place at a slow pace. The metrics measured the total number of coins not moving in at least 180 days and revealed the movement of coins out of long-term wallets.
In the chart, there are cycles involving accumulation and distribution. Spikes represent the addition to inactive balances, and large negatives represent sales. Traditionally, large sales occur around the time when the market reaches a large peak, and the older market sells to the newer one to create demand.
As the year 2025 nears its end, the outlook still holds a negative pattern. The total net change over 180 days indicates continuous withdrawal, reflecting the distribution of coins by long-term holders. However, newer investors look ready to absorb these coins, maintaining the balance of the marketplace.
VanEck believes it’s a rotation rather than panic sales. “Long-term holders who bought in at lows will gradually reduce their holdings as prices increase, while newer buyers will enter at strong momentum.” This “coin shift” does not mean it’s automatically at the top of the market, but it’s usually expected at the latter stages of the bull run.
From the data, the phases of distribution never occur in a straight line, as there are times when selling dries up or reverses before proceeding. Trends in mid-December indicate a conventional late-cycle rotation, where long-term investors are net selling, and new investors are absorbing the supply.
Bitcoin Struggles Against Key Resistance
In the short term, bitcoin has yet to break through above its 4-hour 200 EMA/MA. On Dec. 23, analyst Daan Crypto Trades posted a chart showing that at the time, BTC was priced at around 87,545 on Bitfinex, while its 4-hour 200 EMA and MA stood at around 91,102 and 89,201, respectively.
In a post on X, the analyst noted: “$BTC keeps rejecting from its 4H 200MA/EMA trend. Breaking this level is the first step to moving out of this choppy range.”
There were steep drops with a speedy turnaround because the price was range-bound below the moving average area. This corresponds with the “choppy range” description due to high volatility that prevented these trend lines from being used as supports.
If Bitcoin can manage to overcome and hold the 4-hour 200 MA and EMA, this might show a short-term change in market power. Until that happens, the rallies to the levels are faced with resistance, which maintains the range.
