Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle is Dead: Bitwise Bets Big on 2026 as the New Peak Year

• Why Bitwise Says Forget 2025 – 2026 is Bitcoin’s Real Showtime
• The New Bitcoin Boom: Slow Burn Over Fireworks?
• Institutional Tsunami: How Wall Street Changed the Game
• Halving Math: Why the Magic is Fading
• Regulation: Bitcoin’s Double-Edged Sword
• The 2025 vs. 2026 Showdown: Who’s Right?
• FAQs: Your Bitcoin Cycle Questions Answered

In a bold move that’s shaking up crypto predictions, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan declares the end of Bitcoin’s traditional 4-year cycle, placing his chips on 2026 as the next major bull run year. While most analysts expected the peak in 2025, Hougan presents a compelling case for delayed fireworks, citing institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and diminishing halving impacts as game-changers. But not everyone’s convinced – some experts still see October 2025 as the top. Who’s right? Let’s dive into the data.

Why Bitwise Says Forget 2025 – 2026 is Bitcoin’s Real Showtime

Bitwise isn’t new to making waves. Back in May 2025, they predicted a staggering $420 billion would flood into bitcoin by 2026. Now, Hougan drops another bombshell: the 4-year cycle tied to halvings is officially obsolete. His reasoning? Three tectonic shifts in Bitcoin’s landscape. First, halvings are losing their punch – each reduction now has half the impact of its predecessor. Second, institutional players (think spot ETFs sucking up $30B+ since January 2024) are creating constant demand that replaces old cyclical patterns. Third, with Trump pushing Powell for rate cuts, macro conditions are creating the perfect storm for alternative assets like BTC.

The New Bitcoin Boom: Slow Burn Over Fireworks?

Hougan envisions something unprecedented – a “stable boom” rather than the crazy volatility we’re used to. “I could be wrong,” he admits, “but I see this as more of a sustained ascent than a supercycle.” Translation? Fewer Lambo moments, more steady growth fueled by real adoption. This clashes hard with traditionalists like Rekt Capital, who still peg October 2025 (550 days post-halving) as the likely peak. The wild card? Regulation. Hougan argues clearer rules have reduced systemic risks, making crashes less likely – though he warns about overleveraged Bitcoin treasury companies that could collapse if prices reverse sharply.

Institutional Tsunami: How Wall Street Changed the Game

Remember when Bitcoin moved to its own rhythm? Those days are gone. Spot ETFs turned BTC into just another asset class for big money. Strategy and other corporate giants now hoard Bitcoin like digital gold, creating constant buy pressure that smooths out old cycles. VanEck analysts note this creates stability but also new risks – if these players panic sell, the drop could be brutal. Meanwhile, Coinmarketcap data shows trading volumes have stabilized at levels 300% higher than pre-ETF days, proving institutions are here to stay.

Halving Math: Why the Magic is Fading

Let’s geek out on numbers. The 2012 halving sparked a 9,000% price surge. 2016? “Only” 2,800%. 2020? Just 700%. See the pattern? Each halving’s impact decays exponentially as Bitcoin’s market cap grows. TradingView charts reveal post-halving rallies now last longer but peak lower. This isn’t magic – it’s basic supply and demand. With daily mined BTC dropping from 1,800 to just 450 post-2024 halving, the effect is mathematically smaller against Bitcoin’s $1T+ market cap. The takeaway? Don’t expect 2025 to mirror 2017’s insanity.

Regulation: Bitcoin’s Double-Edged Sword

Clearer rules have been a godsend for institutional adoption but come with tradeoffs. The SEC’s ETF approvals legitimized Bitcoin, yet some fear over-regulation could stifle innovation. Hougan argues the pros outweigh the cons – reduced exchange hacks (down 73% since 2023 per CipherTrace) and fewer “rug pulls” make Bitcoin safer for mainstream investors. But purists mourn the loss of Bitcoin’s wild west days. As one anonymous miner put it: “We used to be rebels. Now we’re just another ticker on Bloomberg.”

The 2025 vs. 2026 Showdown: Who’s Right?

The analyst community is split down the middle. Traditional cycle theorists point to historical patterns suggesting October 2025 as the top. The new school, led by Hougan, counters that fundamentals now TRUMP technicals. Interestingly, both sides agree on one thing – we’re in for significant gains. They just disagree on timing. The BTCC research team notes that futures markets currently price in a 60% chance of Hougan being correct, with heavy institutional money betting on 2026.

This article does not constitute investment advice.

FAQs: Your Bitcoin Cycle Questions Answered

Why is Bitwise so confident about 2026?

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan believes institutional demand and macroeconomic factors will overpower the diminishing effects of halvings, creating a later but more sustained peak.

What’s the strongest argument against the 4-year cycle theory?

The data shows each halving’s price impact has decreased exponentially – from 9,000% after 2012 to just 700% after 2020 – making historical patterns less reliable.

Could Bitcoin still peak in 2025?

Absolutely. Analysts like Rekt Capital maintain that historical timing models still suggest October 2025 as the most probable top, about 18 months post-halving.

How are spot ETFs changing Bitcoin’s behavior?

ETFs create constant institutional buying pressure that smooths out volatility and may delay peaks, as large investors typically hold longer than retail traders.

What’s the biggest risk to Hougan’s 2026 prediction?

Overleveraged Bitcoin companies could trigger a premature crash if prices drop sharply, potentially resetting the cycle timing.