Wang Jian’s Warning: 90% of Current AI Projects Will Collapse by 2035

Another AI bubble ready to burst? Alibaba co-founder Wang Jian drops a brutal prediction—9 out of 10 AI ventures will flame out within a decade.

The hype vs. reality gap

VCs keep throwing cash at anything with 'AI' in the pitch deck, but Wang's forecast suggests most are building castles on algorithmic quicksand. Remember when 'blockchain' was the magic word that unlocked stupid money? History rhymes.

Survival of the funded-est

The coming shakeout won't be about who's got the smartest models—it'll be about who's still standing when the funding music stops. Spoiler: it's probably the usual tech oligarchs.

Meanwhile in Silicon Valley...

Some founder just secured $50M for an AI-powered avocado toast analyzer. The bankers collecting their 2% fees aren't complaining.

Wang’s computing project acts as a game-changer in Alibaba’s operations 

Concerning Wang’s AI prophecy, he predicts that approximately 90% of AI’s recent projects will vanish within five to ten years. Based on his argument, the reason for this is that most of these projects are not developed based on the basics of this technology.

Still, Wang sees a silver lining. While this may seem like a setback, he believes it will push developers to think more critically and explore deeper possibilities within the AI ecosystem.

Wang is known for his creative and innovative approach to problem-solving. During his time as Assistant Managing Director at Microsoft Research Asia, this mindset helped establish the company’s reputation as a center of innovation in China. He carried this same spirit to Alibaba, where he collaborated with co-founder Jack Ma and played a key role in launching a new computing business unit within the company.

While Wang was convincing Jack Ma about the computing business, he expressed that at this time, he was really anxious because he did not have a business strategy or models to back his idea. He only relied on the anticipated increase in adoption in the tech ecosystem, so demand for computing might surge. Following his theory, this turned out as he anticipated.

Alicloud, Wang’s project, is currently a $16 billion business. Additionally, it enhances Alibaba’s worldwide e-commerce and the company’s daily operations. The project also focuses on developing the Qwen model, which competes with DeepSeek, GPT, and Gemini’s models. This model aims to mimic human reasoning through the application of smart technology.

Considering the uniqueness and advantages surrounding this business, firms in the US and China have joined forces to invest significant amounts in the project to enhance its development, strengthen economic growth, and participate in the future shift of global influence dynamics.

Wang anticipates China will become the global hub of innovation in the tech ecosystem 

After ChatGPT, US President Donald TRUMP issued an executive order to tech giants like OpenAI and Google, seeking protection due to America’s position.

Following the situation, Wang decided not to disclose the major dispute. He, however, revealed the strategies tech companies such as OpenAI and Meta Platforms Inc. employ to solve issues. This included employing highly skilled engineers with salaries as much as sports stars. 

Wang expressed his disapproval with the approach, stating that the approach applied in  Silicon Valley was a factor hindering success. To be precise, he explained that success is mainly about innovation. The Alibaba AI chief further illustrates that in the early stages of innovation, talent is not an issue as long as one finds the right person for this, and not one who is costly.

He later acknowledged that AI adoption over the past two decades was nowhere near its current level. Reflecting on the ecosystem’s growth, he expressed his long-held belief that computing WOULD become as vital as electricity or oil—an essential resource for the modern world—and emphasized that this importance will only continue to grow.

With this in mind, Wang is convinced that China will become the global hub of innovation as one of the global testing grounds of technology. “It’s a place to try out new technology,” he explained. Wang also noted that people are really interested in technology as they are exploring many different ideas in the ecosystem.

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