Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Could Ignite Epic Bitcoin Bull Run—Here’s Why Analysts Are Betting Big

Forget interest rates—the real market mover might be sitting in the Oval Office. Bitcoin's next parabolic surge could hinge entirely on who Donald Trump taps to lead the Federal Reserve. Analysts are placing bets, and the stakes couldn't be higher for crypto's flagship asset.

The Fed's Next Boss: Crypto's Kingmaker?

Monetary policy meets political theater as speculation mounts over Trump's potential appointee. A dovish chair could unleash the liquidity floodgates—precisely the rocket fuel Bitcoin thrives on. Meanwhile, Wall Street braces for impact, hedging against the possibility of another inflation-blind yes-man getting the nod. Because nothing says 'sound monetary policy' like appointing someone who'll print your way out of a recession.

Timing is everything. With institutional adoption accelerating and regulatory winds shifting, the right Fed head could catalyze the perfect storm. Or trigger a spectacular face-plant. Either way, grab your popcorn—and maybe some BTC while you're at it.

Bitcoin Bull Run Depends On New Fed Chair

Krüger dismissed worries that a pullback from record highs marks the top, calling it “remarkable how every time you get a correction from new highs so many people start to fret about the cycle top. Over and over again.” He reiterated his longstanding critique of the halving-cycle orthodoxy: “The concept of a 4 year cycle in 2025 is misplaced; [it] died two cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro driven.” In his view, the last cycle ended because the Fed turned “ultra-hawkish in January 2022,” not because of any endogenous Bitcoin dynamic.

The nomination clock is visible. Powell’s current four-year term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, and reporting over the past two weeks indicates the WHITE House has narrowed a shortlist to “three or four” names, with an announcement potentially coming sooner than expected. Candidates floated in mainstream coverage include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett among others, underscoring the market’s focus on how dovish—or not—the next chair might be.

In the nearer term, the policy calendar still drives the tape. Powell’s final Jackson Hole appearance, scheduled during the Aug. 21–23 symposium, is widely framed as a tone-setting moment before the September FOMC. Consensus coverage flags the risk that Powell leans hawkish to preserve optionality, even as rates markets handicap a cut next month; Krüger leans “slightly bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to reduce the odds of a September cut) makes sense, for the Fed to retain optionality and not let the market push itself into a corner.”

Technically, bitcoin has cooled after printing fresh all-time highs in mid-July and again last week. Traders are watching the previous $112,000 high as initial downside cushion, with the psychologically critical $100,000 level, the overhead reference remains the $122,000–$124,000 zone of recent peaks. Krüger also highlights that “BTC is having a very hard time going up sans leverage without triggers,” a point echoed by derivatives signals showing compressed risk appetite.

Derivatives and volatility gauges corroborate the “low-vol, slow ascent” regime he describes. Implied volatility on BTC options (DVOL/BVIV) has sat NEAR two-year lows, and open interest on institutional venues remains off July highs, signaling a more measured stance from levered players into Jackson Hole. Krüger also observed that futures basis had eased alongside the pullback—a classic sign of froth leaking out—while options markets show a renewed bid for downside protection on dips.

The macro through-line is straightforward: if the Fed chair nomination tilts dovish, markets will begin discounting a looser stance well before the first policy move, extending the cycle; if the candidate (and subsequent guidance) skews restrictive, the liquidity impulse that powered Bitcoin’s post-ETF advance will fade at the margin.

For now, the immediate catalysts are stacked—Powell at Jackson Hole, followed by PCE, NFP, CPI and PPI into September’s FOMC—while price trades between well-defined levels with volatility suppressed. As Krüger put it, bull markets “don’t end because of valuations or over-extension; the end needs a major trigger.” In 2025, that trigger may well be a name.

At press time, BTC traded at $115,683.