XRP ETF Approval Imminent? Analyst Predicts September-October Surge
Ripple's XRP might be on the verge of a game-changing moment. Market whispers suggest an ETF approval could hit as early as September—just in time for Wall Street's annual 'crypto curiosity' season.
Why now? Regulatory winds are shifting, and even the SEC's usual foot-dragging can't ignore the pressure forever. XRP's legal clarity gives it an edge over other altcoins still stuck in regulatory purgatory.
Of course, bankers will pretend they invented the idea—right after calling it a scam for years. Stay sharp: if the suits are suddenly bullish, you know the real play is already in motion.
New Listing Standards Open Door
According to the recent filing of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, any coin with at least six months of futures trading on a platform such as Coinbase’s derivatives exchange can qualify for an exchange-traded product.
The six-month rule replaces a longer review process that could stretch into 240 days. Instead, exchanges can use a 75-day window once they file a rule change. This shift aims to simplify the path for an XRP ETF and similar products.
The SEC’s “Listing Standards” for crypto ETPs is out via new exchange filing. BOTTOM LINE: Any coin that has futures tracking it for >6mo on Coinbase’s derivatives exchange WOULD be approved (below is list). It’s about a dozen of the usual suspects, the same ones we had at 85% or… https://t.co/QlzZnta7Yv pic.twitter.com/CmBr8XxAcM
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 30, 2025
Developments around in-kind creation and redemption also matter. Based on reports from crypto lawyer Bill Morgan, this change lets authorized participants create or redeem ETF shares using actual cryptocurrency rather than cash.
The revision slashes settlement costs and lines up crypto products with how Gold and other commodity ETPs work. Market makers can now back ETFs with real tokens, cutting out extra steps.
XRP ETF Odds Climb
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has put the chance of an XRP ETF approval at 85% for September or October 2025. He notes that once the six-month futures threshold hits for assets like XRP, Dogecoin and Solana, the path becomes much clearer. Prediction markets back his view, showing odds near 86% even after procedural delays.
Balchunas and his team have tracked every filing and rule tweak. They say these updated listing standards are the last major barrier. With futures already trading for multiple altcoins, issuers need only get the final green light from the SEC. That could happen by early fall, he suggests.
Ripple Lawsuit And DeadlinesA key hurdle remains the legal fight between Ripple and the SEC. Based on reports, both sides may drop appeals ahead of an August 15 status report deadline. If that happens, it would remove a major overhang on XRP ETF applications.
The SEC has already extended Franklin Templeton’s review through the end of 2025, but this new filing hints those long waits might wrap up sooner.
Legal experts like former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel believe a dismissal of appeals would clear one of the last big obstacles. Then only final SEC sign-off would stand between issuers and live trading.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
