Coinbase Defies Odds: The Unlikely Trump Trade Powerhouse Charging Toward Record Highs
Wall Street didn't see this coming—Coinbase, the crypto exchange everyone loves to hate, is suddenly the dark horse of the Trump rally. Forget gold or defense stocks; digital assets are stealing the political risk premium.
How a 'regulatory punching bag' became a market darling
While SEC lawsuits gather dust, Coinbase's stock chart looks like a Bitcoin bull run redux. The platform's survival instincts—lobbying muscle, offshore derivatives, and that sweet, sweet regulatory arbitrage—are paying off. Traders are betting the administration's hands-off approach will let crypto run wild.
The irony? Washington's favorite villain now prints money faster than the Fed's dollar printer. Just don't mention the 2023 SEC complaint—nobody cares when the charts go brrr.
One hedge fund manager quipped: 'We're long Coinbase and short common sense.' Welcome to 2025's most irrational, profitable trade.
COIN Poised For $100 Billion Market Cap
Coinbase has had an impressive start to 2025. Analysts at Ned Davis Research emphasized in a recent note that no other company seems to be benefiting as much from the current political climate as Coinbase.
In Monday trading, shares of Coinbase ROSE by 2% to $394.79, following a record closing high of $388.96 just days earlier. The stock has jumped an impressive 63% this year and is on track to achieve a market capitalization exceeding $100 billion for the first time.
A significant turning point for Coinbase came in February when the SEC dropped a lawsuit that had been pending for two years, which accused the company of operating as an unregistered securities exchange.
This victory was followed by Coinbase becoming the first cryptocurrency firm to join the S&P 500, further solidifying its status in the market.
Investors are particularly optimistic as Congress prepares to discuss three bills aimed at clarifying the regulatory framework surrounding the cryptocurrency sector. The legislation has garnered broad support among crypto advocates.
Additionally, the SEC’s decision to MOVE crypto oversight to its more favorable Cyber & Technology unit and repeal a rule requiring financial institutions to treat crypto custody holdings as liabilities has further boosted market confidence.
Positive Long-Term Outlook For Coinbase
Looking ahead, analysts from Benchmark Equity Research anticipate that Coinbase will successfully petition the SEC to offer tokenized equities on its platform. CEO Brian Armstrong’s “close ties to Trump” are expected to play a role in this endeavor.
Moreover, Coinbase is well-positioned to benefit from the Clarity Act, one of the bills under consideration, which aims to enhance institutional confidence in digital asset trading and holding.
Benchmark has maintained a Buy rating for Coinbase, setting a price target of $421. However, some analysts caution that the positive developments may already be reflected in the stock’s current price.
Owen Lau of Oppenheimer recently assessed the likelihood of the Clarity Act passing at 70% and slightly adjusted his estimates for Coinbase’s trading volume ahead of the company’s earnings report scheduled for July 31.
Even if the upcoming earnings release disappoints, experts believe that the underlying momentum of Coinbase will not be significantly affected. Oppenheimer has reiterated an Outperform rating, raising its price target to $417 from a previous $395.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
