Bitcoin Cycle Confluence Hints No Bottom Before October – Here’s Why It Matters

Bitcoin's perfect storm of cyclical indicators suggests rocky terrain ahead—with no clear bottom forming until at least October.

Timing the Trough

Multiple historical patterns converge to paint a sobering picture for short-term bulls. The four-year halving cycle, monthly momentum oscillators, and miner capitulation metrics all align toward continued pressure.

October's Make-or-Break Moment

Seasonal trends compound the technical outlook. Institutional inflows typically slow during summer months, while retail interest remains tepid until clearer regulatory frameworks emerge. The convergence suggests October becomes the earliest plausible reversal point.

What Traders Should Watch

Key resistance levels hold the clues. A sustained break above $58,000 would invalidate the bearish confluence, while continued failure to reclaim $60,000 reinforces the cyclical narrative. Volume patterns and derivatives data will confirm either scenario.

Meanwhile, traditional finance pundits continue predicting crypto's demise—despite being wrong for thirteen consecutive years. Some things never change.

Macro Picture Remains Bearish With $99,000 Target

In a new insight shared on X, analyst TARA provided an update on Bitcoin’s price action, stating that “the fight continues” and that the internal “waves are such a mess right now.” The current situation reflects a highly complex market environment where the short-term and mid-term technical signals are contradictory: the immediate trend is categorized as bullish, while the medium-term outlook remains bearish.

The analyst noted that Bitcoin found support at a critical technical cluster defined by a 0.618 extension and a specific 0.854 support level, a confluence that indicates buyers stepped in decisively. TARA emphasizes the significance of this hold, stating that if Bitcoin had dropped any lower, it would have “invalidated any short-term bullish scenarios.

Despite the short-term strength, bitcoin has yet to test the resistance, which is now identified at $114,400. TARA points to this level as the immediate target if the price can successfully turn around and continue its current upward trajectory. However, TARA concludes with a strong reminder about the macro trend, which remains bearish, with the full target for this entire correction remaining at approximately $99,000.

Time Cycles Point To Bearish TK Cross Formation

Dr. Cat, in a recent update, explained that a renewal of the September 25th low at $108,652 after September 28th WOULD be a critical signal for Bitcoin. Such a move would indicate a continuation of the bearish trend, suggesting that the market may not find a bottom before October 1st, with the possibility extending toward October 3rd (±2 days) based on the daily chart outlook.

If the low is revisited, it would likely cause the Kijun Sen to turn downward, setting up a valid bearish Tenkan-Kijun (TK) cross. Meanwhile, the Chikou Span (CS) is also positioned in a way that shows it is preparing for its own bearish cross, further reinforcing the possibility of continued downside pressure.

Dr. Cat reminded followers of a prediction made roughly three weeks earlier, where the analyst stated that the market bottom should not be expected before October. That earlier analysis was grounded on the monthly chart.

Now, the daily chart appears to be coming into alignment with the monthly outlook. If Bitcoin does in fact renew the September low within the stated timeframe, this would likely serve as the trigger confirming the bearish continuation.