Could a New U.S. Law Spark the Next Crypto Rally in 2025?

• Why Food Tariffs Matter to Crypto Investors
• The Fed-Crypto Connection: A Liquidity Liftoff?
• Supreme Court Wildcard: Trump Tariffs on Trial
• Technical Outlook: The $4 Trillion Battleground
• Short-Term vs. Long-Term Crypto Scenarios
• Bottom Line: Policy Meets Price Charts
• FAQs: Tariffs, Inflation, and Crypto

A proposed U.S. bill, the "No Tariffs on Groceries Act," aims to restrict presidential authority over food tariffs—a move that could indirectly fuel the next crypto bull run. By easing inflationary pressures, the legislation may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a softer monetary stance, historically a tailwind for risk assets like bitcoin and altcoins. With crypto markets consolidating near $4 trillion, this policy shift could be the catalyst for a breakout. Here’s how food tariffs, inflation, and Fed policy intertwine with crypto’s trajectory.

Why Food Tariffs Matter to Crypto Investors

At first glance, U.S. Representative Haley Stevens’ "No Tariffs on Groceries Act" seems purely political—a bid to prevent unilateral food tariff hikes without Congressional approval. But dig deeper, and you’ll find a potential domino effect: lower tariffs → reduced food inflation → softer Fed policy → improved crypto liquidity. The Yale Budget Lab estimates current tariffs could spike grocery prices by 3.4% and fresh produce by 4.1%, directly impacting the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Since CPI is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, any relief here might delay rate hikes—music to crypto traders’ ears.

The Fed-Crypto Connection: A Liquidity Liftoff?

Here’s the chain reaction crypto bulls are betting on:

1. Tariff cuts lower food inflation
2. CPI cools faster than expected
3. Fed pauses (or cuts) rates sooner
4. Investors chase risk assets

Historically, crypto thrives in low-rate environments—just look at the 2020-2021 bull run post-pandemic stimulus. With the crypto market cap hovering at $3.98 trillion (per TradingView data), even a slight dovish Fed pivot could send Bitcoin and altcoins past the $4.1 trillion resistance.

Supreme Court Wildcard: Trump Tariffs on Trial

Adding spice to the mix: The Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of Trump-era tariffs. If overturned, inflation could drop overnight—supercharging the disinflationary trend the "No Tariffs" bill aims for. "Markets WOULD price in a friendlier liquidity environment immediately," notes a BTCC analyst. This aligns with crypto’s consolidation phase; the market seems to be waiting for macro clarity before its next big move.

Technical Outlook: The $4 Trillion Battleground

The charts tell a compelling story:

• Bollinger Bands show prices hugging the upper band until mid-September, now retracting—a classic consolidation signal.
• Key resistance at $4.1 trillion; Fibonacci extensions suggest $4.4T and $4.8T as next targets.
• Support zones at $3.8T (mid-Bollinger) and $3.6T (summer rally base).

"Tariff relief could be the spark that breaks the $4.1T ceiling," says a TradingView commentator. "But if inflation stays sticky, we might retest $3.6T."

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Crypto Scenarios

Expect choppy trading between $3.8T-$4.1T as traders digest macro news. Any legislative progress could tilt sentiment bullish.
Successful tariff cuts might cool inflation enough for Fed rate cuts—a scenario where $4.8T becomes plausible.
Stubborn tariffs + hawkish Fed = potential drop below $3.6T, though global liquidity could limit downside.

Bottom Line: Policy Meets Price Charts

Don’t sleep on this "boring" grocery bill—it’s stealthily tied to crypto’s next big move. With the market at a technical inflection point and macro winds shifting, 2025’s Q4 could deliver fireworks. Just remember: in crypto, even the produce aisle can MOVE markets.

FAQs: Tariffs, Inflation, and Crypto

How do food tariffs affect cryptocurrency prices?

Food tariffs increase grocery costs, boosting inflation metrics like CPI. Higher inflation pressures the Fed to maintain tight monetary policy, which typically hurts risk assets like crypto. Removing tariffs could reverse this dynamic.

What’s the crypto market’s key resistance level?

As of September 2025, the total crypto market cap faces strong resistance at $4.1 trillion, with Fibonacci projections suggesting $4.4T and $4.8T as next targets if broken.

Could the Supreme Court’s tariff decision impact Bitcoin?

Yes—if the Court invalidates existing tariffs, it could accelerate disinflation, potentially prompting earlier Fed rate cuts. This scenario historically benefits crypto valuations.