Kalshi Surges Past Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume as U.S. Trading Activity Explodes

Prediction markets just got a major shakeup—Kalshi's now leading the pack where it counts most: raw trading volume.

U.S. Traders Drive the Action

American users are flooding in, pushing daily volumes to new heights and leaving competitors scrambling. No fancy narratives—just cold, hard numbers and growing mainstream adoption.

Regulatory Tailwinds or Just Hype?

While some platforms operate in gray zones, Kalshi’s U.S.-friendly approach seems to be paying off—imagine that, playing by the rules actually working. Who would’ve thought?

Volume Talks, Bullishness Walks

This isn’t just a flash in the pan. Surging activity signals deeper confidence in crypto-based prediction mechanisms—even if traditional finance still thinks it’s all gambling.

So while Wall Street debates yield curves, real innovation—and real volume—is happening right here. Predict that.

Its volume is beyond that of Polymarket, which stood at $430 million, and its average open interest of $164 million, which implies “sticker positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.”

Polymarket's longer-term markets, which often stretch over weeks or months, keep user funds locked in for longer periods, essentially.

This shows up in the open interest-to-volume ratio: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi sat lower at 0.29. That suggests Kalshi's users are trading more often, while Polymarket's positions tend to sit.

Still, Polymarket is building out a greater position in the U.S. The platform has cleared its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, to enter the country again.

It has also launched earnings-based markets with social investing platform Stocktwits, designed to let stockholders hedge earnings risk and analysts gauge market sentiment in real time.