Bitcoin and Ethereum Under Pressure: $5.3 Billion in Options Set to Expire This Friday (October 10, 2025)
- Why This Friday’s Options Expiry Could Shake the Crypto Market
- Bitcoin’s Precarious Balance: Greed vs. Fear
- Ethereum’s Make-or-Break Moment
- What’s Next for Crypto After the Expiry?
- FAQ: Your Crypto Options Expiry Questions Answered
The crypto market braces for volatility as over $5.3 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expire on Friday, October 10, 2025. With Deribit and IBIT traders split between bullish calls and bearish puts, the stage is set for a high-stakes showdown. Bitcoin hovers near $121,400, while ETH lingers around $4,350—both at critical "max pain" levels. Will this trigger a rally or a correction? Here’s what the data says.
Why This Friday’s Options Expiry Could Shake the Crypto Market
Tomorrow marks one of the largest crypto options expirations of 2025, with $5.3 billion in BTC and ETH contracts set to settle. According to Deribit (the dominant platform handling 85% of crypto options volume), open interest has surged to $36 billion—a yearly high. This isn’t just routine expiry; it’s a liquidity battleground. Traders are divided: some are loading up on calls targeting $238,000 for BTC, while others bet on a drop to $110,000. The "max pain" price—where most options expire worthless—sits at $121,000 for BTC and $4,400 for ETH, creating a tug-of-war.
(Source: Deribit)
Bitcoin’s Precarious Balance: Greed vs. Fear
BTC currently trades at $121,400, just above its max pain level. The Fear & Greed Index reads 70 ("Greed"), suggesting traders are overconfident—a classic contrarian signal. Historical data from CoinMarketCap shows that when BTC nears all-time highs (like its $126,000 peak last month), sharp corrections often follow. Key levels to watch:
- Bullish scenario: A close above $122,000 could fuel a run toward $125,000–$128,000.
- Bearish scenario: A dip below $117,000 may trigger liquidations, accelerating a fall to $110,000.
As BTCC analyst Mark Tan notes, "The market’s stuck between FOMO and profit-taking. This expiry could break the stalemate."
Ethereum’s Make-or-Break Moment
ETH mirrors BTC’s tension, trading at $4,350 against a max pain of $4,400. The token is trapped in a $4,300–$4,600 channel, with derivatives data from TradingView showing heavy call interest at $4,600. However, long positions have faced partial liquidations this week—a warning sign. If BTC stumbles post-expiry, ETH could nosedive toward $4,200. Conversely, a BTC rally might propel ETH past $4,600, fueled by spot ETF speculation.
(Source: DepositPhotos)
What’s Next for Crypto After the Expiry?
Friday’s expiry will likely set October’s trend. Two scenarios dominate:
- Volatility surge: IBIT’s unusually large $238,000 BTC calls suggest some traders expect a "gamma squeeze."
- Liquidity hunt: Market makers may push prices toward max pain to minimize payouts, exacerbating swings.
This isn’t just about derivatives—it’s a stress test for crypto’s $1.2 trillion market cap. As one veteran trader quipped, "Options expiry days are like caffeine for crypto: you either get a jolt or a crash."
FAQ: Your Crypto Options Expiry Questions Answered
What happens when crypto options expire?
Options contracts settle either in cash (for European-style options) or via asset delivery (American-style). Most crypto options are cash-settled, meaning traders profit/lose based on price differences.
Why does max pain matter?
Max pain is the price at which the most options expire worthless, minimizing payouts by market makers. Prices often gravitate toward it NEAR expiry.
How does this affect spot prices?
Large expiries can increase volatility as traders hedge positions. A 2024 study by BTCC found BTC moves 3.2x more on expiry days versus averages.
