Gemini Finally Wins CFTC Approval After 5-Year Wait, Launches First Regulated U.S. Prediction Market

Regulators just handed crypto a new playbook—and Wall Street's old guard might want to take notes.

The Long Game Pays Off

Five years of regulatory chess culminated in a single green light. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's approval unlocks a frontier that traditional finance has largely sidestepped: a fully regulated, U.S.-based prediction market. This isn't a side project; it's a core exchange function stepping into the light.

More Than Just Bets

Forget sports odds. This market structures contracts around real-world events—economic indicators, election outcomes, even climate data. It turns information into a traded asset, creating a decentralized oracle that prices the future in real time. The mechanism bypasses opinion polls and analyst guesswork, tapping into the wisdom—and financial stake—of crowds.

The Compliance Blueprint

The launch sets a technical precedent. Every contract, every settlement, operates within a defined regulatory perimeter. It proves complex derivatives can live on-chain without living in the shadows. The model offers a template for others: innovate first, engage regulators relentlessly, then build.

A New Price Discovery Engine

This moves crypto beyond pure currency or speculative asset play. Prediction markets become a fundamental layer for information arbitrage. They could eventually influence traditional markets, providing a faster, liquidity-driven signal than slow-moving institutional reports. It's hard data, fueled by skin in the game.

The Bottom Line

This approval does more than launch a product—it legitimizes an entire category of financial innovation. While traditional finance spends millions lobbying to protect legacy revenue streams, crypto just built a new one inside their regulatory walls. Sometimes, the best way to disrupt the system is to get a key and walk right through the front door.

A Regulated Prediction Market Offering Binary Event Contracts

With its newly acquired DCM license, Gemini will launch a prediction market built around—markets that can be answered with a clear “yes” or “no.”
Users will be able to trade on questions such as:

• “Will Bitcoin surpass USD 200,000 by year-end?”

These products function as speculative tools that leverage collective intelligence to forecast future outcomes. Gemini says additional cryptocurrencies, includingand potentially high-profile altcoins like, may be added as prediction targets later on.

U.S. customers can participate using. The company also plans to integrate prediction-market functionality into its mobile app.

Presidentemphasized the long-term growth potential of the sector, stating that prediction markets could “rival or exceed the size of traditional capital markets.”

Regulatory Shift Under New Leadership Accelerates Approval

Gemini attributes the breakthrough to changing regulatory attitudes in the U.S. The company acknowledged the influence of theand new leadership at the CFTC, crediting Acting Chairwith steering the agency toward a more innovation-friendly regulatory approach.

CFTC records confirm thatwas designated as an official DCM as of. Meanwhile, applications from competitors such asandremain pending.

With this approval, Gemini gains a significant first-mover advantage in a space where many prediction markets have historically operated in legal gray areas. A CFTC-regulated platform could mark a major turning point toward the sector’s legitimacy, broader adoption, and integration with mainstream finance.

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