JBS and Marfrig 2025: Santander Still Doesn’t See the Bottom of the Cycle and Urges Caution on Stocks
- Why Is Santander Still Skeptical About JBS and Marfrig?
- Historical Context: When Did the Meatpacking Sector Last Bottom Out?
- What’s Driving the Pessimism? Key Factors Analyzed
- How Are Analysts Adjusting Their Models?
- FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
Santander’s latest analysis on JBS and Marfrig paints a cautious picture for investors in 2025. Despite some market optimism, the bank warns that the meatpacking sector’s downturn isn’t over yet. Here’s a DEEP dive into why Santander remains skeptical, what historical trends suggest, and how BTCC’s analysts interpret the data. Buckle up—this isn’t your typical dry financial report.
Why Is Santander Still Skeptical About JBS and Marfrig?
Santander’s research team, led by senior analyst Carlos Mendez, reiterated its cautious stance on JBS and Marfrig in a report dated August 28, 2025. The bank argues that cyclical headwinds—like fluctuating commodity prices and weaker global demand—haven’t fully played out. "We’ve seen this movie before," Mendez quipped, referencing the 2022-2023 downturn. "The rebound hopes are premature." Data from TradingView shows JBS shares are down 12% year-to-date, while Marfrig has dipped 8%.
Historical Context: When Did the Meatpacking Sector Last Bottom Out?
The last major cycle low for Brazilian meatpackers was in Q4 2023, when oversupply and trade barriers crushed margins. Santander notes that current inventory levels (up 9% YoY per government data) echo pre-crash patterns. "The sector’s recovery has always been slower than expected," said a BTCC market strategist. "Investors betting on a quick turnaround might get burned."
What’s Driving the Pessimism? Key Factors Analyzed
Three red flags stand out:
- Commodity Volatility: Live cattle futures swung 18% in July alone (Source: CME Group).
- Export Woes: China’s pork self-sufficiency push has cut Brazilian beef import growth to 4%, down from 21% in 2024.
- Debt Overhang: JBS’s net debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.7x remains above pre-crisis levels.
"It’s a perfect storm," admitted a São Paulo trader. "Even BBQ season hasn’t saved margins."
How Are Analysts Adjusting Their Models?
Santander slashed JBS’s 2025 EPS estimate by 14% and Marfrig’s by 9%, citing higher feed costs. Rival banks are split—BTCC’s team sees "selective opportunities" in derivatives hedging, while others warn of dividend cuts. Fun fact: Marfrig’s CEO joked at last week’s earnings call that analysts "need a steak dinner to chill out."
FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
Is now a good time to buy JBS or Marfrig stock?
Santander says no—wait for Q3 earnings. BTCC suggests dollar-cost averaging for long-term holders.
What’s the wildcard that could change Santander’s view?
A sharp drop in US corn prices or unexpected China trade deals, per the report.
How does this affect cryptocurrency markets?
Minimal direct impact, though BTCC notes agricultural commodity tokens like SOYBEAN-USD often mirror meatpacker stocks.
