Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle Nearing Its Peak? Top Analysts Sound Off

Bitcoin's relentless rally faces its ultimate test as market veterans debate whether this bull run has legs—or if the party's about to end.

The Gravity of Momentum

Analysts point to classic cycle patterns suggesting we're deep into euphoria territory. Every previous bull market followed predictable psychological phases—from disbelief to greed. The question isn't if it ends, but when.

Institutional Whispers vs. Retail FOMO

While Wall Street quietly rebalances crypto exposures, mainstream investors keep piling in. That divergence often signals inflection points. Remember—smart money accumulates during fear, not during CNBC interviews.

The Fed Factor

Interest rate fantasies fueled this run more than any tech breakthrough. When liquidity tightens, crypto's correlation to risk assets screams louder than its 'digital gold' narrative. Because nothing says 'store of value' like 30% daily swings.

So is this time different? Maybe. But as one hedge fund manager quipped: 'In crypto, cycles don't die—they just take coffee breaks while regulators catch up.'

What About The 4 Year Cycle?

If this theory is accurate, it could also change the four-year cycle, which has traditionally been anchored around bitcoin halving events.

Earlier this week, analyst James Check opined that “Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, and they are not anchored around the halvings,” adding that they are anchored around the “trends in adoption and market structure,” with the market’s 2017 peak and 2022 bottom being the transition points.

He said that there have been three cycles so far: an “adoption cycle” from 2011 to 2018, an “adolescence cycle” from 2018 to 2022, and the current “maturity cycle,” which is driven by “institutional maturity and stability.”

Hedge fund veteran “PlanC” said on Thursday that there is a “99% chance stock-to-flow breaks this cycle, and a 50/50 chance the 4-year cycle breaks.”

Meanwhile, trader Bob Loukas said it was hard to see which way things WOULD go.

“Either the 4-year cycle has already topped and we’re in heavy distribution as buyers eventually exhaust… or we’re just weeks away from start of blow-off phase, a fast doubling (or more) over 3-6 months.”

Earlier this month, Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan said that gains are likely to continue into 2026, “so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over.”

Slumptember Ahead?

Glassnode also said that Bitcoin was still tracking its traditional patterns but added this week that recent profit taking and elevated selling pressure “suggests the market has entered a late phase of the cycle.”

In previous ones, crypto markets pulled back heavily in the September of the bull market year before recovering and shifting to new highs at the end of the year. If history rhymes, this could be on the cards next month.

In past cycles, Bitcoin marked a major low in September and then rallied for 2-3 months in Q4. pic.twitter.com/Vw5h9uPk4z

— apsk32 (@apsk32) August 27, 2025

Whether the cycle is about to peak or will extend into 2026 remains to be seen, but more voices are favoring the latter due to the heavy institutional participation in crypto markets, which was not seen in previous cycles.