Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Dead in 2024? How ETFs and Regulations Are Reshaping Crypto Markets
- Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Officially Over?
- How ETFs and Institutional Money Rewrote the Rules
- Regulation, Macro Shifts, and the End of “Blowup” Winters
- What’s Next for Bitcoin? Analysts Weigh In
- FAQs: Bitcoin’s New Era
Bitcoin’s infamous four-year cycle—marked by halvings, bull runs, and brutal crashes—might be fading into history. With spot bitcoin ETFs flooding the market, institutional investors holding long-term, and regulators finally engaging (not attacking) crypto, the old playbook is getting shredded. Analysts argue that while volatility won’t vanish, 70% drawdowns could be relics of the past. Here’s why 2024 looks nothing like 2017 or 2021—and what it means for your portfolio.
Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Officially Over?
Matthew Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, put it bluntly: “It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over.” Historically, Bitcoin followed a predictable rhythm: halving → supply shock → price surge → 80% crash → “crypto winter” → repeat. But 2024 broke the script. Bitcoin hit a record $73,000April’s halving—something Saksham Diwan, a CoinDesk analyst, notes “never happened in prior cycles.” The culprit? Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which sucked in $30B+ within months, front-running the usual post-halving rally.
How ETFs and Institutional Money Rewrote the Rules
ETFs didn’t just accelerate price action—they changed investor behavior. “This was the first clear sign institutional flows could alter cycle dynamics,” Diwan added. Unlike retail traders who panic-sell, ETF buyers (think pension funds and asset managers) hold through dips. Data from TradingView shows the largest drawdown this cycle was just 26%, versus 77–84% in prior cycles. Ryan Chow of Solv Protocol credits “long-term holders and steady inflows” for stabilizing volatility. Even so, don’t expect smooth sailing: 30–50% pullbacks on macro shocks (like Fed rate hikes) are still likely.
Regulation, Macro Shifts, and the End of “Blowup” Winters
Past cycles died from self-inflicted wounds—ICO scams (2018), FTX (2022)—but 2024’s landscape is starkly different. The SEC under Gary Gensler sued crypto firms aggressively; now, under President Trump, cases are being dropped. Washington is drafting crypto laws and even launched a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Hougan notes, “Regulators engaging with crypto, not rejecting it, reduces future blowup risks.” Add potential rate cuts in 2025, and the macro setup looks more tailwind than headwind.
What’s Next for Bitcoin? Analysts Weigh In
If the old cycle held, Bitcoin WOULD peak 500–720 days post-halving (Q3 2025–Q1 2026). But with July’s $123,000 all-time high, timelines are murky. Chow believes “the 4-year rhythm is being replaced by macro-correlated behavior,” meaning Fed policy and ETF flows matter more than halvings. Still, Hougan hedges: “We haven’t repealed volatility, but new forces overwhelm the four-year tendency.” One thing’s clear: the days of 80% crashes may be gone. As for BTCC analysts? They’re bullish but cautious—advising diversification beyond Bitcoin.
FAQs: Bitcoin’s New Era
Why is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle fading?
ETFs brought institutional capital that holds long-term, while regulatory clarity reduced panic-selling triggers like exchange collapses.
Could Bitcoin still crash 70% in 2024?
Unlikely. The worst drawdown this cycle is 26%, per TradingView data. Analysts expect 30–50% dips max.
When will Bitcoin peak if not in 2025?
It already hit $123K in July 2024—a pre-halving first. Future highs may hinge on ETF inflows and Fed rate cuts.
