Why September Could Be Your Best Chance to Buy Ethereum This Year
Ethereum's seasonal slump might just be setting up the perfect buying window—here's why smart money is watching the calendar.
Seasonal Patterns & Market Psychology
September historically brings crypto dips as summer liquidity dries up and traditional markets return to focus. Ethereum's not immune to these cycles—in fact, it often amplifies them.
Technical Setup & Accumulation Signals
Key support levels are approaching faster than a hedge fund dumping tokens after bad news. The charts suggest we're nearing classic accumulation zones where institutional players start stacking ETH quietly.
Macro Factors Playing Into Crypto's Hands
While traditional finance frets about rate decisions and inflation reports—because apparently repeating the same panic every quarter is productive—crypto's decoupling narrative gains steam. Ethereum's infrastructure growth continues regardless of what the Fed does.
The Merge's Anniversary Effect
Last September's successful merge to proof-of-stake created both a psychological anchor and fundamental shift that's still working through the system. Anniversary periods often trigger renewed institutional interest.
Bottom Line: September's volatility isn't a bug—it's a feature. The same seasonal weakness that spooks retail traders creates the very opportunities that make crypto veterans rich. Just don't tell the guys in suits still trying to price everything with Excel models.
Why selling pressure could continue in September but turn into an opportunity
CryptoQuant data shows Ethereum’s Cumulative Net Taker Volume dropped below -$2.4 billion.
This metric tracks trader sentiment and behavior on Binance. Takers are traders who place market orders, consuming existing liquidity. A negative Net Taker Volume means market sell orders dominate, signaling bearish sentiment.
Ethereum: Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume and OI. Source: CryptoQuant.
At the same time, Binance Open Interest fell from over $11 billion to nearly $9 billion in August. This decline reflects reduced exposure to ETH.
The bearish mood could carry into September, slowing Ethereum’s rally or lowering the price.
Validator Queue data adds more pressure. As of August 27, 2025, the ETH unstake queue reached a record 986,408 ETH, with a waiting time of 17 days and 3 hours. Such a backlog could trigger heavy selling in September.
Amount of ETH Waiting to Unstake. Source: Validatorqueue
“The queue continually growing like this means there are net new holders every day waiting to exit. Not a great sign,” investor Grubles noted.
History offers hope for September buyers
CoinGlass data on ETH’s monthly returns shows September has historically been weak. Since 2016, the average return has been -6.42% with a median of -12.55%.
In contrast, the fourth quarter has consistently been Ethereum’s strongest period. Average returns stand at +4.77% in October, +7.88% in November, and +6.85% in December. Across all Q4s since 2016, ETH has delivered an average return of more than 23%.
Ethereum Monthly Returns. Source: Coinglass
Overall, current signals suggest September could be a temporary storm. That dip might open a chance to buy ETH at lower levels. With Q4’s strong historical performance and potential recovery after unstaking, Ethereum could break new highs by year-end.
From a technical view, investor Axel Bitblaze expects Ethereum to follow a bullish megaphone pattern through the end of the year. He predicts a September correction could send ETH down to $4,200 before a surge toward $6,800 in Q4.
Ethereum Bullish Megaphone. Source: Axel Bitblaze
"ETH broke a 4 year bullish megaphone, retested clean, and the structure points to $6,800 – $7,000 next." - Investor Axel Bitblaze predicted.
Still, risks remain. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 17 may complicate market moves. A rate cut could support risk assets like ETH. But holding rates higher WOULD intensify selling pressure.
