Solana & Sui Price Surge: Bulls Eye Major Breakout as Token Unlocks Loom
Crypto markets brace for volatility as Solana and Sui prepare for critical token unlocks—will bulls seize control or get trampled?
Price floors solidify as accumulation intensifies
Solana''s ecosystem activity hits 90-day highs while Sui''s DeFi TVL quietly doubles. Traders are front-running what could be the most consequential unlock cycle since January.
The unlock dilemma: liquidity boost or sell-pressure tsunami?
Nearly $200M in tokens hit circulation this month. History says unlocks spark 20-30% swings—but this time, derivatives markets signal conviction. Perps funding rates flipped positive as OI ballooned 40% in 72 hours.
Institutional sharks circle retail blood
Three hedge funds reportedly built nine-figure positions during last week''s dip. Meanwhile, your average ''degen'' is still trying to recover from the memecoin massacre. Some things never change in crypto''s casino economy.
Solana, Sui launch recovery ahead of large linear token unlocks
The altcoin market is characterized by frequent large cliff and linear token unlocks, with the potential to lead to high volatility and sell-side pressure. According to the data shared by Tokenomics, approximately 465,770 SOL valued at around $73 million will be unlocked on Monday, representing 0.09% of the circulating supply.
At the same time, SUI faces a 3.35 million linear token unlock valued at around $10 million. Cliff unlocks refer to large one-time unlocks exceeding $5 million, while linear unlocks represent large daily unlocks exceeding $1 million.
Token unlocks stats: Source Tokenomics (table prepared by Wu Blockchain)
Technical outlook: Solana gains bullish momentum
Solana’s technical structure is gaining strength after last week’s sell-off, with the price now holding at $156. The demand zone coincided with the ascending channel’s lower boundary support, which had been sustained since the support was established in April at around $95.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) uptrend, close to the midline, signals improving bullish sentiment, likely to steady gains and target resistance at $200, approximately 28% above the current price level. A continued movement of the RSI toward the overbought region WOULD go a long way to uphold risk-on sentiment in upcoming sessions.
Traders will look for a break above the resistance due to the confluence of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 100-day EMA around $157. The 200-day EMA sits slightly above the confluence, highlighting a potential risk to the uptrend NEAR $162.
SOL/USDT daily chart
Sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market has the potential to impact Solana’s price performance, particularly amid tensions between Israel and Iran. Therefore, traders should recognize the role played by demand at $140 as well as the ascending channel in the face of the token unlock.
Sui technical outlook: Sui edges higher, but downside risks remain
Sui’s price bounced off support provided by a descending trendline after extending losses to $2.80 on Friday. With gains accruing to almost 3% at the time of writing on Monday, the path of least resistance leans firmly upward.
The RSI indicator’s recovery, approaching the 50 midline, suggests increasing bullish momentum. Sui’s immediate downside is protected by support provided by the 200-day EMA at $3.06.
SUI/USDT daily chart
However, traders should be aware of a potential delay in the recovery, as resistance is expected at the 100-day EMA, around $3.21 and the 50-day EMA, at $3.29, which could encourage profit-taking.
A break above these two key levels could see bulls expand their scope to $4.12, representing a 33% increase in value to touch the previous month’s high.
On the downside, beyond the descending trendline, declines have the potential to accelerate, bringing key areas such as $2.50 and $2.00 into sight.
Open Interest, funding rate FAQs
How does Open Interest affect cryptocurrency prices?
Higher Open Interest is associated with higher liquidity and new capital inflow to the market. This is considered the equivalent of increase in efficiency and the ongoing trend continues. When Open Interest decreases, it is considered a sign of liquidation in the market, investors are leaving and the overall demand for an asset is on a decline, fueling a bearish sentiment among investors.
How does Funding rates affect cryptocurrency prices?
Funding fees bridge the difference between spot prices and prices of futures contracts of an asset by increasing liquidation risks faced by traders. A consistently high and positive funding rate implies there is a bullish sentiment among market participants and there is an expectation of a price hike. A consistently negative funding rate for an asset implies a bearish sentiment, indicating that traders expect the cryptocurrency’s price to fall and a bearish trend reversal is likely to occur.
