Bitcoin Volatility Dips Below S&P 500 and Nasdaq—A Rare Calm Before the Storm?

Bitcoin’s wild price swings have finally quieted down—so much so that its volatility has dropped below traditional market benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. A fleeting moment of stability, or the calm before the next crypto supercycle?

The numbers don’t lie (for once)

Galaxy’s latest data shows Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility trailing both major indices—a rarity in the asset’s rollercoaster history. Traders who once needed antacids to check BTC charts can now breathe (temporarily).

Wall Street’s ’safe havens’ looking shaky

While crypto skeptics love to parrot ’volatility’ as Bitcoin’s fatal flaw, the old-guard markets aren’t exactly steady these days. Funny how nobody mentions the Nasdaq’s 3% daily drops when lecturing about ’risky’ assets.

The big question: Will the peace last?

History says no. Bitcoin’s low-volatility periods typically precede explosive moves—and with institutional adoption accelerating, the next spike could make prior rallies look like warm-up acts. Just don’t tell the SEC.

The Nasdaq Composite Index has been in the red over the past six months. Source: Nasdaq

Bitcoin’s correlation with major indexes declines

The analysts noted that bitcoin still maintains elevated 30-day correlations with major indexes, around 0.62 with the S&P and 0.64 with the Nasdaq. However, its beta has declined, signaling that investors may be treating it less as a high-risk asset and more as a long-term allocation.

“Bitcoin as a non-sovereign asset means an investor doesn’t need the full faith or tax basis of a nation to support the integrity of the asset,” said Chris Rhine, head of liquid active strategies at Galaxy.

Galaxy said that the recent investor behavior mirrors what was observed during the 2018–2019 US-China trade tensions when Bitcoin rallied amid rising global uncertainty.

Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, told Cointelegraph that surging ETF inflows and Strategy’s ongoing Bitcoin purchases are helping reshape Bitcoin into a digital version of gold, less tied to equities.

“As institutions deepen liquidity, volatility drops, making Bitcoin a cornerstone for portfolios,” Huang added.

Meanwhile, Galaxy’s OTC trading desk said the market posture is “tactically cautious but structurally constructive,” marked by disciplined leverage and low hedging stress.

With 95% of Bitcoin’s total supply already mined and growing interest from institutions, ETFs, and even governments, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a digital store of value.

“Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics are solidifying its place as a mature digital store of value,” said Ian Kolman, co-portfolio manager at Galaxy.

On April 25, Jay Jacobs, BlackRock’s head of thematics and active ETFs, said there has been a long-term trend where countries have been reducing their reliance on dollar-based reserves in favor of assets like Gold and, increasingly, Bitcoin.

He noted that geopolitical fragmentation is fueling demand for uncorrelated assets, with Bitcoin increasingly viewed alongside gold as a safe-haven asset.