Kalshi Launches Tokenized Predictions on Solana: Betting Markets Go On-Chain

Prediction markets just got a blockchain upgrade. Kalshi, the regulated platform for wagering on real-world events, is breaking out of its walled garden and launching tokenized contracts on Solana.

From Politics to Pop Culture

Forget centralized settlement. Kalshi's move tokenizes its prediction contracts—essentially turning 'yes' or 'no' bets on everything from election outcomes to box office numbers into tradable digital assets. It bypasses traditional financial plumbing, letting users buy, sell, and hold positions directly in a self-custody wallet. The play is clear: capture the crypto-native crowd that views prediction markets as a form of decentralized information aggregation, not just gambling.

Solana's Speed Play

The choice of Solana is a calculated bet on throughput. Kalshi needs a chain that can handle high-frequency trading and settlement for fast-moving markets without buckling under fees. Solana's low-cost, high-speed architecture fits the bill—offering a user experience that might actually rival the slick, centralized incumbent. It's a stark contrast to the congested and costly environments that have plagued other chains, a necessary evolution if DeFi wants to eat more of traditional finance's lunch.

A New Arena for Speculation

This launch blurs the lines further between financial derivatives and social forecasting. Tokenized predictions become composable building blocks—potentially integrated into DeFi yield strategies, used as collateral, or bundled into novel synthetic assets. It creates a 24/7 global market for event risk, untethered from traditional trading hours or geographic borders. Of course, it also opens a shiny new casino wing in the crypto ecosystem, because what's finance without a little speculative grease?

The final word? Kalshi's pivot on-chain is more than a feature launch—it's a direct challenge to the slow, permissioned world of traditional finance. By tokenizing predictions, it turns every market into a potential asset class, for better or worse. Just remember, in the quest to democratize finance, we often just end up democratizing the tools for losing money faster.

Expanding market reach

Kalshi’s expansion taps into the surging demand for event contracts. Prediction markets reported nearly $28 billion in trading volume through October, with weekly peaks hitting $2.3 billion in late October, according to Crypto.com research. 

By accessing the $3 trillion digital asset market, Kalshi gains the liquidity needed to scale rapidly. “There’s a lot of power users in crypto,” Wang told CNBC. “This is about tapping into the billions of dollars of liquidity that crypto has, and then also enabling developers to build third party front ends that utilize Kalshi’s liquidity.” 

Founded in 2018, Kalshi made history as the first exchange to launch federally regulated event contracts on U.S. congressional races in late 2024. The platform now runs approximately 3,500 markets globally. It raised over $300 million last fall at a $5 billion valuation, backed by Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital. Despite this growth, competition is rising. 

Polymarket’s U.S. relaunch and Coinbase’s upcoming prediction markets, revealed through tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong, will pressure Kalshi to maintain liquidity and innovative offerings.

How tokenized contracts work

Each contract on Kalshi is binary: it pays $1 if the event happens, $0 if it doesn’t. Users can purchase or sell “yes” or “no” positions at any point in time before the resolution of the event. Payouts are then distributed once finalized according to the predefined source of truth, which is generally official data or trusted news outlets.

Similarly, Coinbase says it will offer a similar model under U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight through its derivatives arm in cooperation with Kalshi. To make a trade, users must first fund a USD or USDC wallet, and the platform has guides for users about various risks and how the mechanics work.

Legal challenges and market risks

Kalshi faces a nationwide class action lawsuit in New York, accusing it of illegal online sports betting. Plaintiffs claim that the event contracts for athletic outcomes effectively bypass state gambling laws. The suit escalates Kalshi’s regulatory challenges from disputes with the CFTC to private legal liability. 

Wang insists liquidity remains Kalshi’s priority, “If you have a market with no liquidity, then you don’t really have a market. People can’t really trade size or get the prices that they want.”

Kalshi’s tokenized contracts combine traditional prediction markets with crypto trading. By linking on-chain and off-chain funds, the platform could handle more activity, despite rising competition and legal challenges.

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