Crypto Market Cycle: Peak or Bear Trap? Top Analysts Clash on 2025 Outlook

Crypto's latest rally has traders divided—is this the cycle top or just another bear trap? Prices flirt with historic resistance levels as bulls and bears prepare for battle.

The Bull Case: 'This Time Is Different'

Pro-crypto analysts point to institutional adoption metrics hitting all-time highs. Exchange reserves dwindling while ETF inflows surge—classic supply squeeze setup.

The Bear Counterpunch: 'Same Old Cycles'

Skeptics highlight derivatives data showing excessive leverage. 'Retail always buys the top,' quips one hedge fund manager while adjusting his yacht's mooring fees.

With volatility spiking and Bitcoin dominance wavering, one thing's certain: someone's about to get rekt. Place your bets—just maybe don't mortgage the house this time.

Is the 4 Year Cycle Dead?

“The concept of a 4-year cycle in 2025 is misplaced,” he said, arguing that the four-year cycle “died two cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro-driven.”

The end of the 2021 market cycle was Federal Reserve-driven, not Bitcoin-specific, he said. The cycle ended because the Fed went “ultra-hawkish” in January 2022, not due to natural Bitcoin dynamics.

Bitcoin now trades more like a stock – lower volatility, slower ascent since spot ETF approvals changed market dynamics, he said before adding:

“I have a high degree of confidence this cycle is not over because I am expecting changes in the Fed to bring on considerably more dovish monetary policy, which is not priced in at the moment.”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday, which could give some insight into September’s rate decision. A hawkish speech to reduce the odds of a September cut WOULD be bearish, said Krüger, who concluded:

“Bull markets don’t end because of valuations or over-extension; the end needs a major trigger.”

A Big Bear Trap?

If the four-year cycle is still intact, the current correction is expected and could be a bear trap.

In 2017, crypto markets fell by 40% in September before powering to new peaks three months later, and exactly the same happened in 2021 with a 25% September slump before fresh highs.

This chart has been doing the rounds, showing that previous bull markets have lasted nine months and the bear trap, or big pullback, always came in the sixth month, which is where we are now.

Bitcoin Macro bull-cycles

2011:
– Duration 9 Months (after ATH)
– Bear trap in Month 6

2013:
– Duration 9 Months
– Bear trap in Month 6

2017:
– Duration 9 Months
– Bear trap in Month 6

2021:
– Duration 9 Months
– Bear trap in Month 6

2025:
– We just entered Month 6…

Do… pic.twitter.com/2vp9a9ylOr

— ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ (@DeFiTracer) August 18, 2025

According to the “Halving Cycles Theory,” the cycle tops appear within three weeks of Nov. 28, which is a little over three months away, observed analyst CryptoCon.