Retail vs. Whales: CryptoQuant Exposes Who’s Really Driving Bitcoin’s 2025 Surge

Bitcoin's latest bull run has everyone asking: Is this organic retail demand or just whales playing games? CryptoQuant's on-chain forensics cut through the noise.

The whale watch

Large holders are accumulating—but this time, exchange reserves tell a different story. Retail wallets are growing faster than a DeFi yield farm in 2021.

Liquidity showdown

Order books show thinning liquidity at key levels. When the big players move, they're not exactly leaving crumbs for the little guys.

The cynical take

As usual, Wall Street's 'adoption' narrative conveniently ignores who gets wrecked when leverage flips. Some things never change—except your portfolio balance.

Retail Investors Are Absent

In past cycles, retail players have consistently dominated the final phases of bitcoin’s (BTC) bull run. The crypto market often witnessed retail investor frenzy, hype, and mass euphoria. However, that is not the case this time, as there is different behaviour among Bitcoin investor cohorts.

Since early 2023, retail BTC investors have been selling their holdings. Data charts show that the holdings of this investor cohort have consistently declined since then. Currently, retail accumulation has turned significantly negative.

Conversely, large investors began an accumulation trend in early 2024. This group of investors is led by institutions, high-volume wallets, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These market participants have been aggressively accumulating BTC, signaling long-term confidence in the asset.

As BTC climbed to $123,000, retail investors continued selling, while larger players persisted in their accumulation. The asset is now consolidating below $120,000, and large investors are still in the driver’s seat, sustaining the positive uptrend.

Bitcoin Searches Remain Muted

Data from Google Trends further substantiates CryptoQuant’s analysis. Searches for “Bitcoin,” while not at the lowest in five years, are still muted. Past reports have shown that a rise in retail interest often follows an increase in bitcoin’s price. The market experienced this trend in late 2020 and early 2021, and it continued in November 2024.

The muted retail interest in bitcoin suggests that the crowd has not yet awakened. CryptoQuant says there is no retail fear of missing out (FOMO) or social media overflowing currently.

“This cycle looks nothing like the madness of 2021…Quiet and smart money is currently on stage — and most people are still watching from the sidelines,” the analytics firm stated.

In conclusion, the absence of retail investors in this phase of the cycle suggests that BTC still has room for growth. However, an increase in retail participation may signal the end of the bull run.