August Roars In: ETF Bloodbath, Bitcoin Stumbles as Macro Risks Loom
Wall Street's crypto ETFs hemorrhage cash—just as Bitcoin trips on macro landmines. Buckle up.
The ETF Exodus
Investors are sprinting for the exits. Spot Bitcoin ETFs—the darlings of Q2—just posted their worst weekly outflows since January. Guess that 'institutional adoption' narrative needs a defibrillator.
BTC's Macro Trap
King crypto got sucker-punched by rising Treasury yields and a hawkish Fed. The $58K support? Gone by lunchtime. Now traders eye the $53K level like a life raft on the Titanic.
The Cynic's Corner
Funny how 'uncorrelated asset' chatter vanishes when traditional markets sneeze. Maybe those 'hedge against inflation' T-shirts need a disclaimer: *Results may vary when Powell brings the pain*.
This isn't a dip—it's a stress test. And crypto's sweating bullets.
Ethereum stays hot as Bitcoin cools off
SoSovalue data shows that August 1 saw $812.25 million leave Bitcoin ETFs. July 31 had also posted a withdrawal of $114.35 million. The net flows into BTC ETFs reversed to negative $643 million last week, ending a seven-week positive run.
Meanwhile, ethereum ETFs still recorded $154 million in net inflows, hitting their 12th consecutive week of printing green.
Bitcoin price is down around 4% in the last 7 days, but still remains up by 7% over the 30-day time frame. BTC is trading at an average price of $114,594 at press time. Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin last month. ETH price jumped by 42% over the last 7 days, hovering around the $3,500 zone.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom, had warned over the weekend that Bitcoin and Ethereum were primed for a correction. Pointing to weak job creation, rising tariffs, and sluggish credit creation globally, Hayes argued that BTC could test $100,000 and ETH $3,000 before resuming any rally. “No major econ is creating enough credit fast enough to boost nominal GDP,” he stated in a X post.
However, his longer-term forecast remains ultra-bullish, expecting BTC to hit $250K BTC by year-end and $1 million by 2028. Historically, August has not been great for bitcoin and Ethereum as they closed lower in each of the past four Augusts.
Rate cut odds surge
But just as panic set in, a weak US jobs report flipped the script. Only 73,000 jobs were added in July, which was well below the expected 110,000. The downward revisions from May and June shaved off 258,000 jobs, the steepest two-month downgrade since the COVID crash. This was enough to send rate cut odds surging.
According to Polymarket, there’s now a 70% chance the Fed cuts rates by 25bps in September, up from just 35% a week ago. The odds of a deeper 50bps cut are rising too, but it is still under 7%. Amid this, the US dollar dropped, bond yields fell, and risk appetite reawakened across markets.
The global markets are dealing with US President Trump’s newly announced tariffs targeting 69 countries. But with Fed policy now firmly back in play, and inflation data still running hot. The upcoming week can make or break the market as investors will see the July S&P Global Services PMI data on Monday.
Initial Jobless claims data will be out on Thursday, with five scheduled Fed speakers this week.
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