Stocks, Gold & Dollar Surge: Safe Havens Rally as Global Economy Buckles

Markets kick off August with a classic flight to safety—while crypto traders smirk from the sidelines.

Old-school assets flex

Stocks, bullion, and greenback spike in unison as recession fears trump inflation worries. The trifecta hasn't moved this in lockstep since the 2023 banking crisis.

Meanwhile in digital asset land...

Bitcoin whales keep accumulating during the dip, because nothing says 'hedge against chaos' like a decentralized asset that swings 10% before breakfast. TradFi's scrambling for cover while DeFi degens keep farming yields like it's 2021.

Funny how the 'stable' markets now move on Fed whispers while crypto just... keeps building. Maybe Satoshi was onto something.

Bond yields collapse as Fed rate cut bets rise

In the bond market, investors made it clear they’re betting on cuts. The two-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.659%, its lowest in three months. The 10-year yield hovered NEAR a one-month low of 4.2434%.

Traders are now pricing in nearly a 90% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September. Expectations are mounting for two 25 basis-point cuts before year-end, and odds of a third are sitting around 40%.

Japanese bonds didn’t sit out. Yields on the 5-year fell as much as 9 basis points to 0.99%, while the 10-year slid 8.5 basis points to 1.465%. The sharp MOVE came after U.S. Treasuries jumped late Friday.

Investors in Tokyo are now eyeing Tuesday’s 10-year bond auction to see whether demand holds up under this pressure. Just last week, the Japanese 10-year yield had touched levels last seen in 2008. Now it’s retreating fast, dragging global yields with it.

Stocks, equities and gold bounce while traders scan tariff fallout

U.S. stock futures surged early Monday too, even with traders still nervous about a new round of tariffs announced by Trump’s team. The S&P 500 futures added 0.55%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.62%, and the Dow Jones futures climbed by 230 points, or 0.53%.

But this came after a brutal week that wiped out prior gains across the board. The S&P 500 dropped 2.4% last week, its worst since late May. The Dow fell 2.9%, the steepest since early April.

The Nasdaq ended 2.2% lower. This week’s small bounce didn’t undo the broader market’s unease over inflation and weakening growth. The fresh tariff wave only made that worse.

In Europe, stocks opened higher but remained shaky. The STOXX 600 rose 0.5% by 08:30 GMT after sinking to a three-month low on Friday. Swiss stocks, however, sank.

The SMI index fell 0.8% as the market reopened after a long weekend. Traders reacted to a U.S. tariff hike on Swiss goods, now sitting at 39%. The ten biggest losers on the STOXX 600 were all from Switzerland.

On the commodities front, Gold stayed strong. The metal was trading around $3,357, coiling inside a consolidation triangle near the upper part of its channel. Analysts tracking the chart say the pattern looks like a textbook continuation setup. A breakout above $3,450 could open the door to another surge.

Citi updated its gold forecast on Monday, bumping its three-month target to $3,500 per ounce, up from $3,300. The bank also widened its expected range to $3,300–$3,600. In its client note, the bank explained the adjustment came from expectations that U.S. growth will slow further.

“U.S. growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are set to remain elevated during 2H’25, which alongside a weaker dollar, are set to drive gold moderately higher, to new all-time highs,” Citi wrote.

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