China’s Trade Deal with US: Geopolitical Chess or Just Another Paper Tiger?

Beijing spins the agreement as a strategic masterstroke—meanwhile, Wall Street quietly checks its offshore accounts.

Behind the handshakes: What the deal actually changes for tech tariffs, agricultural exports, and the delicate dance of superpower egos.

Bonus cynicism: ’Win-win’ in diplomacy usually means someone’s cooking the books.

China offers duty relief but keeps a tight grip on rare earth minerals

Beijing is also using the deal to show it is a steady trading partner, even while foreign companies often speak of “promise fatigue.” Many firms note that Chinese cooperation can fade once talks end.

This time, China and the United States agreed to build a “consultation mechanism” so officials could maintain discussions about trade and other monetary issues.

The steps take effect on Wednesday, though Beijing has already offered tariff breaks to some companies inside China. The government also vowed to “adopt all necessary administrative measures to suspend or remove the non‑tariff countermeasures.” These steps include easing the stricter export limits on rare‑earth minerals that Beijing set in its last round of actions. These minerals are essential to many U.S. industries.

Yet the message on metals was mixed. On Monday the Commerce Ministry promised to keep fighting rare‑earth smuggling for national‑security reasons, and said that “foreign entities” were partly to blame for problems in the market.

Worldwide investors have reacted positively to the US-China trade deal

Stock markets jumped on Monday after the two capitals announced the pause, calming worries that the trade fight WOULD keep dragging on the global economy.

Chinese officials say they never bent during talks. Before the Geneva meetings, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said, “We will resolutely safeguard our legitimate interests and uphold international fairness and justice.”

On Monday the Commerce Ministry called the pact an “important step,” but also urged Washington to “completely correct its unilateral tariff practices.”

U.S. officials are also calling it a “historic trade win” for the United States. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that both sides plan to meet again in the next “few weeks” to work toward a “more fulsome agreement.”

Rory Green, head of China research at TS Lombard, said the result plays well at home.

“In China, this is viewed as a big win,” Green said. “The U.S. is a ‘paper tiger’ and Xi successfully forced Washington to treat China as an equal. [China was the] only country that retaliated and the only negotiations that occurred in a third country.” Green thinks the 20% fentanyl tariffs will be removed “fairly easily,” pointing out that Beijing has stepped up drug control.

But new risks remain. Washington is still proceeding with sector‑specific tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and other high‑tech fields that matter to China’s long‑term plans. Analysts say those levies may prove harder to unwind.

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