Trump Eyes Oil Windfall Through MBS Ties—But Saudi Arabia Has Other Plans

Former President Trump angles for a lucrative oil deal leveraging his relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). Meanwhile, Riyadh’s strategy appears to diverge—prioritizing long-term market control over short-term political favors.

The Game of Petrodollars

Trump’s playbook relies on personal connections, but Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 demands calculated economic moves—not nostalgic handshake deals. The kingdom’s recent OPEC+ maneuvers suggest they’re playing chess, not checkers.

Wall Street Won’t Hold Its Breath

Another day, another attempt to monetize political capital. Meanwhile, institutional investors shrug—accustomed to the circus of geopolitics masking as market strategy.

MBS pitches peace while Trump courts cash

While Trump focuses on headlines and economic wins, MBS is trying to convince him to help with diplomacy. The Saudi leader has offered to support Trump’s peacemaking efforts in Gaza, Ukraine, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

He’s even trying to steer Trump away from supporting Israel’s military plan to hit Iran. Saudi Arabia has also been floated as the venue for a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vlad Putin, though no date is set.

In the past few months, Saudi Arabia has hosted many multilateral talks, including ones with Russia and Ukraine. Ali Shihabi, a commentator and member of the advisory board for MBS’s NEOM project, said, “It certainly enhances Saudi Arabia’s prestige and soft power in the world and regionally.”

The optics of this trip are huge. Riyadh is the first stop on Trump’s Middle East tour, which includes the UAE and Qatar. A major show is planned in Diriyah, home of the royal family. That’s not a coincidence. Riyadh wants to show that Trump sees MBS as the real power in the region.

And there’s more than just politics. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund put money into Jared Kushner’s ventures. They hosted LIV Golf events at Trump-owned resorts. On a trip to Qatar and UAE, Eric Trump announced real estate projects involving a Saudi company.

Vision 2030 still needs foreign money

MBS sees his bond with Trump as a way to revive Vision 2030, the big plan to modernize Saudi Arabia. Yes, it’s delivered on some social changes like more jobs for women and a growing entertainment scene. Yes, it helped the country land Expo 2030 and the 2034 men’s World Cup. But it hasn’t brought the money. Foreign investment dropped for the third year in a row in 2024. The NEOM project still hasn’t taken off.

Despite the age gap—Trump is 78, MBS is 39—they see eye-to-eye. Trump has waged economic war globally under the MAGA banner. MBS jailed conservative clerics, seized royal wealth, and put princes in the Ritz-Carlton in 2017.

That same hotel will host Trump this week. “They respect and understand one another because both in a sense, are trying to change the economic, political, and social trajectory of their nations,” said David Rundell, a former U.S. diplomat.

In Miami, during a speech at the Future Investment Initiative Institute, Trump praised Saudi Arabia as “a special place with special leaders” and thanked MBS for helping with the Ukraine talks. Rundell said MBS has given Saudi Arabia a “MAGA-like moment.”

There’s still backlash. The West tried to isolate MBS after the 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi, but Trump cooled off. Joe Biden didn’t get along with the Saudis, clashed over oil and human rights, and watched as MBS got closer to China and Russia.

Riyadh even considered joining BRICS but hasn’t finalized it yet. Though BRICS’ Putin is still a lot closer to MBS than Trump will probably ever be.

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